Global consumer confidence remains muted

Expectations Index continues its decline as sentiment remains low among the world’s most advanced economies.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
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Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index this month reads at 45.7, down 0.4 point since August. The Index sits at its lowest point since April 2021. In addition, the Expectations index has declined for the 11th consecutive month, and it now sits at its lowest point since December 2020.

The overall index’s decline, which started following the invasion of Ukraine in February, has been continuing over the past seven months. Since returning to pre-pandemic levels in February, the index has sustained losses each month and now sits three points lower.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from 23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between August 26 and September 9, 2022.

Among the countries surveyed, only Turkey (+3.8 points) and Brazil (+1.5 points) show a significant gain in their National Index since last month, while Great Britain (-2.3 points) and Sweden (-2.2 points) show significant declines.

Global sentiment has continued its downward path as concern about inflation has become increasingly widespread. Fifteen of the 23 countries now show a National Index score that is significantly lower than it was in February, while just four (Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, and Turkey) show scores that are significantly higher. Lastly, in five of the G7 countries—the United States, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, and Japan—consumer confidence is at its lowest level in more than a year.
Six countries show a significant drop since last month in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. Likewise, six countries show a significant drop in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment. Finally, just two countries (Sweden and Germany) show significant declines in their Jobs Confidence Index.

Brazil and Turkey are the only countries to show significant increases in the Expectations Index, while Turkey is the only country to show significant increases in the Investment and Jobs indices

National Index Trends

This month, China has the highest National Index score (70.6) and is the only country with a National Index score above the 70-point mark. Saudi Arabia (69.8) and India (63.7) are the only other countries with a National Index score above 60.

Just four other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Australia (52.7), Sweden (51.1), the United States (50.7), and Canada (50.2).
In contrast, eight countries now show a National Index below 40: South Korea (38.9), Italy (38.6), South Africa (38.0), Japan (37.9), Poland (37.2), Argentina (32.9), Hungary (30.7), and Turkey (30.6). Consumer confidence in Italy shows a decline for the seventh straight month. In Turkey, however, consumer confidence rebounded this month, rising above the 30-point mark for the first time since March.

Similar to August, the same four countries have a National Index score that is significantly higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic: Saudi Arabia (+5.8), India (+4.1), Australia (+2.1), and France (+1.5). In contrast, National Indices are now significantly lower than pre-pandemic in Hungary (-13.8), the U.S. (-11.8), Poland (-10.3), Great Britain (-7.8), Israel (-7.6), Germany (-7.5), Argentina (-7.3), Belgium (-5.5), Sweden (-4.8), Turkey (-3.4), Japan (-2.6), Italy (-2.5), South Africa (-2.4), Brazil (-2.2), and Canada (-2.1).

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

Among 23 countries:

  • Six countries show a significant drop (at least 1.5 points) in their Expectations Index: Great Britain, Hungary, South Korea, Belgium, Germany and Sweden. Turkey and Brazil both show significant gains.
  • Six countries (Great Britain, Sweden, Israel, Italy, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia) show significant losses in their Investment Index. Turkey is the only country to show a significant gain.
  • Sweden and Germany show a significant drop in their Jobs Index, while Turkey is the only country to show a significant month-to-month gain.

About this Study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. The results are based on interviews with a total of 17,000+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, and South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs

Society