Adams, Garcia make gains in race for NYC mayor

New Spectrum News NY1/Ipsos poll finds Eric Adams moves into the lead, as crime/public safety grows in issue importance

The author(s)

  • Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Sara Machi Research Analyst, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, June 11, 2021 — Less than one month before the Democratic mayoral primary in New York City, Eric Adams has overtaken Andrew Yang as the top vote-getter, but still remains far from the needed 50% +1 majority, according to a new Spectrum News NY1/Ipsos poll. Around one in five likely Democratic voters say Adams is their first choice, followed by Yang and the fast-rising Kathryn Garcia, who has nearly doubled her name recognition and quadrupled her share of first-choice votes since the previous NY1/Ipsos poll in April. The poll also finds that crime has overtaken COVID-19 as the most important issue for both voters and the overall population, with almost half of voters saying it should be the top priority for the next New York City mayor to address.

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About the Study

This Spectrum News NY1/Ipsos NYC mayoral primary poll was conducted May 17 to 31, 2021, by Ipsos using the KnowledgePanel®, supplemented by the SSRS Probability Panel, the Ipsos opt-in iSay panel and panel partners. This poll is based on a representative sample of 3,249 residents of the 5 New York City boroughs age 18 or older. 532 completes came from Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel®, 204 from SSRS and 2,513 from opt-in sample.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, NYC borough/county, and household income. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2014-2018 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year file from the US Census Bureau. Additional adjustments were included for the sample that supplemented KnowledgePanel® to reduce biases known to be associated with non-probability samples, including amount of television watching, time spent on the internet, frequency of expressing political opinions online, and likelihood of being an early adopter of new products and technology. Benchmarks for these additional weighting variables were from the weighted KnowledgePanel® sample in wave 1. The weighting categories were as follows:

  • Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
  • Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, and Hispanic)
  • Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
  • Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
  • FIPS Code/County (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond)
  • Language dominance (English Dominant Hispanic, Bilingual or Spanish Dominant Hispanic, Non-Hispanic)
  • Amount of television watching (less than 3 hours per day or 3 or more hours per day)
  • Time spent online for personal use (Less than 10 hours per week or 10 or more hours per week)
  • Frequency of posting political opinions online (Never or less than once a month or more often)
  • Being first among friends to try new products (Not at all/Somewhat and A lot/Completely)

The credibility interval, a measure of precision used for Ipsos’ online polls, for the entire sample is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. Among likely voters, the credibility interval is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The credibility interval takes into account the design effect, which was 1.90 for all adults and 1.93 among likely voters. The credibility interval is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

This poll is trended with a Spectrum News NY1/Ipsos NYC mayoral primary poll, conducted April 1-15, 2021. That poll contained n=3,459 residents of the 5 New York City boroughs and n=1,000 likely voters. The credibility intervals from that poll were plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents and plus or minus 4.7 percentage points for likely voters.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Director, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420-2014
[email protected]

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations Specialist, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]

 

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest Insights and Analytics company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com

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The author(s)

  • Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Sara Machi Research Analyst, Public Affairs

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