Washington, DC, October 3, 2019 — As the House of Representatives’ impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump continues to unfold, a new USA Today/Ipsos poll finds that 45% of Americans believe the U.S. House should vote to impeach Trump (38% do not), and an equal number (44%) think the U.S. Senate should vote to convict him (35% do not). However, Americans are split on whether there is enough reliable information or evidence to decide if Trump should be impeached; four in ten (39%) say yes, 36% say no, and a quarter are unsure. The issue of impeachment uncovers a vast partisan split, as Democrats overwhelmingly favor a House impeachment vote (74%) and Senate conviction (72%), while fewer than one in five Republicans (17% each) agree.
A majority of Americans (52%) agree that President Trump asking Ukraine to investigate Biden is an abuse of power, including 79% of Democrats, 46% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans. On the other hand, less than half (42%) believe there are valid reasons to look into Hunter and Joe Biden’s behavior in Ukraine. One area in which there is bipartisan agreement: majorities of Democrats (65%) and Republicans (61%) alike believe that children of senior American officials should be prohibited from benefitting from their family relationships.
Though two-thirds (65%) are very or somewhat familiar with the launch of a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump, fewer (58%) are familiar with the presidential impeachment process itself, including less than a quarter (23%) who consider themselves to be very familiar. When asked a series of factual questions about the impeachment process, a slim majority understand that impeachment begins in the U.S. House of Representatives (56% answered correctly) but that it does not immediately remove a president from office (55% answered correctly). Most Americans guessed incorrectly that American presidents have been removed from office by impeachment in the past; only two have been impeached, but neither was removed from office. Just 33% of Americans answered correctly.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between October 1-2, 2019 on behalf of USA Today. For this survey, a sample of roughly 1,006 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 412 Democrats, 403 Republicans, and 115 Independents.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,006, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 10.4 percentage points for Independents.
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