NEWSWEEK GENEXT Poll: Young Voters

Washington, D.C. -- Nearly one in three (30%) registered voters under 30 have registered to vote within the past six months. One in ten (13%) have registered as recently as the last month.

Recent registration efforts appear to have had the most impact among 18-21 year olds (22%), residents of the Western U.S. (20%), women with no more than a high school education (21%), unmarried parents (23%) and those who live with their parents (19%; 29% also say they've been contacted by non-partisan organizations in this regard).

Non-Partisan Groups Reach Young Voters Only 15% of young voters have been contacted by either of the two parties, with equal numbers being contacted by the Democrats and Republicans. A greater number (20%) have been contacted by non-partisan organizations.

One in five (22%) young voters in battleground states have been contacted by a political party, as have nearly as many (14%) in Gore states, compared to just 5% in Bush states.

The reach of non-partisan organizations is slightly different. They have reached a slightly greater share of young voters (20%). Contact with these organizations is most often reported by 18-21 year olds (30%), Northeasterners (28%), and urban residents (28%).

Eight in ten (80%) endorse the "get out the vote" efforts such as those backed by P. Diddy and MTV as effective in achieving their goals. Republicans (74%), Democrats (86%) and Independents (73%) alike consider these efforts to be effective, although Democratic women (94% effective; 42% very) are especially positive. People in suburban regions are mostly favorable (87% effective) while young voters in rural areas are relatively more critical (27% ineffective).

One in Three Expect a Draft Because of Iraq Despite Republican assurances that no military draft is imminent, a third (34%) of young voters expect a draft to be enacted as a result of the war in Iraq. This is similar to findings from May of this year (36% likely).

Expectations of a new draft are highest among:

• 18-21 year olds (44%)
• Democrats (46%), Women (42%), and especially Democratic women (57%)
• More non-whites (45%) than whites (30%) expect a draft
• Northeasterners (42%) and Southerners (39%)

Young voters who are most likely to say a draft is unlikely include:

• Men (73%)
• 26-29 year olds (71%)
• Republicans (79%) and strong Bush-Cheney supporters (83%; and 71% weak Bush supporters)
• College grads (78%)
• Midwesterners (78%)

If a draft were instituted, only two-thirds would abide by it (66%; 62% in May). Three in ten (29%) would not. Three in four men (77%) and a smaller majority of women (56%) say they would serve if drafted. By region, Southerners (74%) are most likely to say they would serve; Northeasterners are most likely to say they would not (42%). Members of minority groups (55% would serve, 40% would not), Democratic women (45%-47%) are most divided on the issue. There is, however, little difference by educational attainment or income.

Willingness to serve is greater among young voters who say a draft is unlikely (74%) than those who think it is likely to happen (55%).

Presidential Vote Remains Close The presidential race remains extremely tight, with John Kerry (47%) enjoying only a slim lead over Bush (45%) among young voters. Last month the vote was also very close (45% Kerry, 44% Bush).

Among the most likely voters, the gap between the candidates widens (42% Bush, 52% Kerry). Also, those who have registered to vote in the past six months tend to favor Kerry (52%) over Bush (41%).

Support for each candidate continues to solidify. Seven in ten (72%) Bush supporters say they will "definitely" vote for the Republican ticket, up from 64% in September. More than two-thirds (68%) of Kerry supporters are definite, compared to 56% last month.

Interest in the election is high. Seven in ten (69%) young registered voters say they have quite a bit or a great deal of interest in the campaign for President. College grads are especially focused on election news (81%). However, each candidate's strong supporters (75% Bush, 84% Kerry) are interested in the campaign than their weak supporters (46% Bush, 49% Kerry).

Young Voters Criticize Bush's Performance Young voters remain fairly critical of George W. Bush's performance in office. Half or more now disapprove of the President's overall performance (53%), as well as his handling of the economy (55%), other domestic issues (53%), foreign policy and the war on terrorism (53%) and the situation in Iraq (54%). Presidential approval appears primarily driven by party identification and likely vote in the upcoming election.

Bush's approval ratings for his overall performance and handling of the economy, domestic issues and Iraq are in line with young voters' views as observed over recent months, and it is generally in line with all registered voters as shown in the most recent AP/Ipsos poll. Young voters are less intensely negative toward Bush's foreign policy now (53% disapprove) than in September (58%).

The Newsweek.com/GENEXT Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between October 1-14, 2004, Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 370 registered voters age 18 to 29. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percent. Comparative results for all registered voters contained in this report are from The Associated Press/Ipsos Poll conducted between October 4-6, 2004 of 1,273 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. Margin of error for subgroups including likely voters may be higher.

Terms Of Use For Referencing This Poll In reporting the results from this poll, please refer to "Newsweek.com / Ipsos Poll." Thank-you. Read the Newsweek.com Web Exclusive Report by Brian Braiker. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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