What Does it Mean to Oppose Trump?

The 2020 Democratic primary is already well underway. With over 20 candidates already seeking the nomination — and more waiting in the wings — speculation on winners and losers is rampant. But most pundits are focusing on the wrong aspects. The popular fixation on “liberal” versus “moderate” candidates misses the real dynamics that will drive this election. Looking at public opinion in the Democratic Party, we see a different dynamic that will decide this primary election.

Pundits, reporters, and professional activists often mistake their own engaged and hyper-aware points of view for that of typical Americans. As a consequence, they focus on topics that matter less outside of their own bubble, like specifics of policy proposals or allegiance to different factions of the Democratic Party. Most Americans, on the other hand, do not follow politics as a full-time job and rely on different decision-making tools to select candidates to support in a general election.

But Democratic voters this cycle do have a single overriding, unifying goal: opposition to President Donald Trump. There is a truism in American politics that voters select presidents who are the opposite of their predecessors. Going into 2020, the real battle in the Democratic Party will be defining what it means to be Trump’s opposite.

Right now, Joe Biden leads the field by appearing to be the most electable — that is, the most likely to beat Trump in a general election. However, past elections show that while an early primary lead is an advantage, it by no means makes Biden a sure thing. Right now, Biden has higher name recognition than many of the other candidates, giving him a leg up in polls. Ultimately, however, who wins the Democratic nomination is going to come down to which candidate most closely is identified as the antidote to Trump. Our reading of public opinion sees three dimensions where this debate will be fought: insider vs. outsider, identity and representation, and style of opposition. 

Democratic voters are in the process of figuring out how they want America to respond to Trump through the proxy of the Democratic candidate. These three dimensions are our way of understanding what voters want and which candidate best reflects those values. Our data shows that at this moment, Democratic and Independent voters have yet to coalesce around a single vision.

Insider vs. Outsider

Donald Trump’s outsider status was the key to his success as he rode a wave of hostility to the political and media establishments into the White House. But “drain the swamp” was not just a phenomenon of the political right. Echoes of this populist anger were present in Sen. Bernie Sanders’ hostility to Wall Street and wealthy interests. Going into 2020, this brand of populism still is a potent force, led by Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. However, Trump has proven to be indifferent to managing the federal government or reforming its operations. Given Democratic belief that government can be a force for good, we are presented with a choice. Is the better refutation of Trump going to emerge from another outsider who is “clean” of the swamp, or will it come from someone who understands the function of the federal government but sees themselves as a change agent, who can make it work to serve progressive goals? 

Identity and Representation

The Democratic Party has increasingly focused on the protection of civil rights for minority groups who experience discrimination. As a consequence of this elevation of the historically disenfranchised, some white Americans have reacted by holding more firmly to a white racial identity. This white racial fear powers President Trump's rhetoric on immigration and race, and the Democratic Party is wrestling with how to respond. On one side, there are candidates who symbolize progress for minority groups like Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Cory Booker, or Julián Castro. On the other are candidates who promise to ‘turn the page’ on racial-based politics altogether, and look to a “Big Tent” to bring white Americans in, like Biden.

Style of Opposition

Donald Trump, for better or worse, has radically transformed political communications. His Twitter feed gives everyone instant, unfiltered access to the chief executive’s views. However, Democrats have come to despise Trump's reality television-honed practices of fighting all the time, denying everything, and always being on the offense. As the Democratic Party looks for a challenger, are they going to look towards someone who mimics Trump's combative style in service to liberal causes or will Democrats want someone who uses a wholly different, perhaps unifying, approach? 

This debate over what it means to oppose Trump will be ongoing, and is going to be resolved by voters’ feelings and perceptions — not by words. The winning candidate may not be the one whose record is the closest match to public preferences. Instead, the candidate who meets the public’s imagination of what it takes to defeat Trump is most likely to prevail in the ongoing Democratic primary contest.