What we know about the election
All the votes are not in yet, but it is looking like the House will go to Republicans and the Democrats will keep the Senate. Right now, our forecast for how the night would shake out stands up well against what happened.
One of the biggest takeaways from the night is the diversity of opinion among Americans right now. In many states, Americans came out in support of abortion rights. At the same time, there were decisive Red wins in Florida.
Americans who turned out to vote dealt the country a mixed message. Not a full-throttle rebuttal of President Biden’s first two years in office, but also not a resounding turn to Republicans.
Below are five data points about what we know about the midterm election results, how much Americans trust elections, and what that means moving forward.
- Record turnout? By all measures, early turnout seemed robust this cycle. The final count isn’t in yet. With multiple cycles posting record turnout, is a polarized America one that’s more energized to vote?
- Red and blue Tuesday. Republicans are inching towards control of the House, while Democrats may be narrowing in on the Senate. These results look and feel about what we expected: narrow Republican wins in the House and a toss-up going to Democrats in the Senate. Candidate quality seemed to matter, particularly in the Senate. We are in polarized times, but there are still some parameters.
- Issue Drivers. Based on exit polling, at first blush, voters who turned out to vote seem to care most about inflation, followed close behind by abortion. Inflation, an issue Republicans are more concerned about, and abortion, a Democratic worry, tell a story we know well: a tale of two Americas, one red and the other blue.
- Violence and election legitimacy. Even as many election deniers won in less competitive races, so far, Trump-backed election deniers in competitive races had a mixed night. We have already seen conspiracies and doubts about the 2022 election pop up after snags in vote tabulation. Most Republicans think voter fraud is a widespread problem. So far, this hasn’t spilled over into violence. Even so, most Americans, regardless of party, are concerned that extremists will commit acts of violence because of the election. Where does that leave us? Each side not trusting the other.
- Red 2024? Contrary to the pundits’ chatter today, midterms typically say nothing about the next general election. There is a lot of time between now and then. President Biden needs better numbers if he wants a second term in the Oval Office. Will they materialize? We will see.
Election night 2022 is in the books. What do we know so far? The results, on the whole, meet our expectations, even if there were some upsets and swings at the margins. Even though votes are still being counted, all signs point to a strong turnout year, with inflation and abortion each driving Republicans and Democrats to the polls.
Some Americans, though, still don’t fully trust the electoral process, something that was on the ballot. Looking ahead to 2024, we can’t say much about what will happen, but unless things seriously change, 2024 will be a red year.
