Where we are headed into Election Day
We are just a hair away from Election Day, and so much history has already happened. Sky-high inflation, the worst in a generation, the overturn of the federal right to abortion, and the results of a presidential election violently contested. All this is the political and economic context framing this cycle.
Millions have already cast ballots early and by mail, though nowhere near the levels we saw in 2020. It’s unclear how this will shape the ultimate outcome of the election. Enthusiasm matters in midterm elections.
Below, in five charts, we discuss the top things to keep in mind about the midterms, the polls, and voting ahead of November 8th.
- Varying Contexts. Overall, the main issue heading into the midterms is inflation, something that’s true regardless of political affiliation. Partisanship colors the next tier of issues. For Democrats, it is climate change or political extremism; for Republicans, it is immigration or crime. Another case of two Americas, one red, the other blue.
- History Matters. On average, the party in power loses 26 House seats during midterm elections. That’s bad news for Democrats, given their small margins in the House. What can staunch the pain? Perhaps a more favorable turnout. Historically, though, Americans struggle to turn out to vote. How will this play out? We will see.
- Differential energies. There are hints of that historical pattern when looking at how likely people are to vote. Republicans maintain an enthusiasm advantage. Democrats trail Republicans by 10 points here. In midterm elections, enthusiasm matters. It is a leading indicator of who will show up to vote. It’s looking like Republicans have the edge.
- Nonignorable Non-response again? Heading into Election Day results, we can’t ignore the big elephant in the polling room: non-response bias. Non-response bias is a type of bias that can crop up in surveys because of who is not responding to them. Looking at an average of FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, the results look fairly close. Adjusting by the average poll error in the past three elections, many of these races go from looking close to appearing more red. Pollsters have adjusted for these misses. We will see how that stacks up soon.
- Reds Gains. Taken together, Republicans look set to make gains in the House. The Senate could go either way. The historical and political context of this moment is encouraging for Republicans. In short, Republicans will make gains. We will have to see by how much come election night.
Republicans look likely to make gains this midterm cycle, with the House going to them and the Senate being a toss-up. If non-ignorable non-response rears its ugly head, they might take both.
The midterm election is the two-year mark in a presidency. Struggling out of a pandemic, contending with inflation, rolling back rights, and political violence are all in the air. We will see what happens on Election Day. We expect a divided government to follow.
