Plurality of registered voters expect Democrats to gain seats in both chambers on Election Day; many unsure
Washington, DC, November 3, 2026 - A new Daily Mail U.S./Ipsos poll finds that, among registered voters, pluralities expect Democrats to gain seats both the U.S. Senate (43%) and U.S. House of Representatives (48%), yet many – around one in three – are unsure about the outcome ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections. About one in four expect Republicans to gain seats in the Senate (26%) and the House (24%). The poll, conducted in the final weekend before Election Day, also finds Democratic registered voters show more significantly more enthusiasm about voting in this year’s midterms than their Republican counterparts (56% vs. 37%).
The economy and cost of living is, by far, the most important issue for registered voters. Lastly, 55% of registered voters believe President Donald Trump is hurting Republicans’ chances in the midterm elections, while 20% say he is helping and 23% say neither.
Methodology
This poll was conducted by Ipsos from October 30 to November 1, 2026, using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,021 adults age 18 or older.
The study was conducted in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, 2024 vote choice, and political party identification. Political party identification benchmarks are from the 2026 NPORS annual survey. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2026 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, and 60+)
- Race-Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races/Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
- Education (Less than High school, High school, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan Status (Metro, Non-Metro)
- Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
- 2024 Vote Choice (Trump, Harris, Another candidate, Did not vote)
- Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat)
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.06. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
About Ipsos
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