RBC CASH Index: U.S. consumer sentiment rebounds from summer doldrums, according to RBC IndexDeclining expectations for the future drive drop in confidence
Positive economic news and rising markets driving improved consumer confidence, but Jobs Index remains low
"The RBC Index for August showed a strong bounce in overall confidence but, as the relatively low readings in the sub-indices show, the economic recovery continues to face a number of headwinds, particularly in the job market," said RBC Capital Markets' U.S. Economist Tom Porcelli. "On that front, the RBC Jobs Index remains at a relatively low level and suggests a continued difficult labor backdrop to any recovery."
The RBC Index is a monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The Index is composed of four sub-indices: RBC Current Conditions Index; RBC Expectations Index; RBC Investment Index; and RBC Jobs Index. The Index is benchmarked to a baseline of 100 assigned at its introduction in January 2002. This month's findings are based on a representative nationwide sample of 1,000 U.S. adults polled from July 30-August 3, 2009, by survey-based research company Ipsos Public Affairs. The margin of error was 1773.1 per cent.
Highlights of the survey results include:
- Consumers' expectations regarding future economic conditions rebounded strongly this month, as the RBC Expectations Index for August 2009 surged to 29.1, up 24.3 points from 4.8 in July. Economic expectations remain the most volatile aspect of consumer sentiment. Currently, 34 per cent of consumers believe the economy in their community will be stronger in the next six months, while 19 per cent believe it will continue to weaken. Just last month, consumers were split much more closely on this question, 31 percent/24 per cent.
- Confidence in current conditions has jumped after declines in the past two months, with the RBC Current Conditions Index for August 2009 standing at 36.6, up 13.3 points from July's 23.3. Consumer comfort with making general household purchases has strengthened after several months of declines. In August, 25 per cent of consumers say they are "more comfortable" making household purchases than they were six months ago, up six points from the 19 per cent saying the same in July and equalling the highest level seen in a year.
- The RBC Investment Index showed strong upward movement this month, rising to 43.9, a 13-point increase from July's level of 30.9. After a month-long stock market rally, the share of American consumers who are confident investing for the future improved to 28 per cent this month, from 22 per cent in July. Moreover, 36 per cent of consumers say it is a good time to invest in the markets, up from 25 per cent in July. This is the highest level of confidence in the markets since the end of 2007.
- Amidst signs that the rate of job loss is slowing, the RBC Jobs Index for August rose to 53.2, up 2.7 points from the 50.5 observed in July. Despite the uptick, the Jobs Index remains well below the 85.8 level recorded a year ago. The biggest negative influence on confidence in job security continues to be real experiences in job loss. Two-thirds (64 per cent) of American consumers continue to say they or someone in their close circle have lost a job in the last half-year, the same rate observed over the last five months.
The entire RBC CASH Index report can be viewed at: www.rbc.com/newsroom/rbc-cash-index.html
For more information on this press release, please contact: Michael Gross, Ph.D. Associate Vice President Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, DC (202) 463-7300 [email protected]About Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals that helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends to develop and test emergent or existing products or services, and build brands. They also test advertising and study audience responses to various media, and measure public opinion around the globe.
They help clients create long-term relationships with their customers, stakeholders or other constituencies. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting and offers a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.
In 2008, Ipsos generated global revenues of e979.3 million ($1.34 billion U.S.).Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.
About RBC Financial Group
Royal Bank of Canada (TSX, NYSE: RY) uses the initials RBC as a prefix for its businesses and operating subsidiaries, which operate under the master brand name of RBC Financial Group. Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank as measured by assets, and is one of North America's leading diversified financial services companies. It provides personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking, and transaction processing services on a global basis. The company employs approximately 60,000 people who serve more than 14 million personal, business and public sector clients through offices in North America and some 30 countries around the world. For more information, please visit www.rbc.com.
Media contacts: Loretta A. Healy, The Hubbell Group, Inc., (781) 878-8882 Kevin Foster, RBC Capital Markets, (212) 428-6902
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