Reuters/Ipsos Issues Survey September 2023

Trump maintains his lead in the Republican primary as the race for second heats up

The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Charlie Rollason Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist
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Washington, DC, September 21, 2023 – Former President Donald Trump lengthened his lead over the rest of the field, while a surging Vivek Ramaswamy has caught up to the steadily-declining Ron DeSantis in the race for the 2024 Republican candidacy, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between September 8-14, 2023. The poll also finds that while over half of Americans are concerned about the spread of COVID-19, Americans are relatively split on whether they’re interested in getting the new bivariant COVID-19 vaccine. Among Americans who are not interested in getting the new COVID-19 vaccine, a plurality say they aren’t interested because they believe it is dangerous.

Chart: Republican 2024 Primary

Detailed Findings:

Among Republicans, former President Donald Trump has lengthened his lead in the Republican primary race (Trump is the top option for 51% of Republicans). Meanwhile, after the first Republican debate, tech entrepreneur and Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (13%) has pulled even with Florida governor Ron DeSantis (14%), even as more Republicans say they have heard of DeSantis (94%) than Ramaswamy (80%). DeSantis’ popularity has dropped among Republicans since mid-March, when 30% of Republicans selected him as their top candidate.

President Biden maintains a lengthy lead over the field of Democratic candidates among Democrats (67%) compared to Democratic candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (14%) and Marianne Williamson (4%).

Chart: Republican 2024 Primary

A head-to-head 2024 Presidential matchup between Biden and Trump remains a virtual tie, with both candidates selected by 39% of respondents. Among registered voters, Biden has a slight lead (44% Biden, 39% Trump).

Just over half of Americans are concerned about the spread of COVID-19 (54%) and are interested in getting the new COVID-19 vaccine (53%). Concern about COVID-19 and interest in the new vaccine are split by party: 72% of Democrats are concerned about the spread of COVID-19 and 77% are interested in getting the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while 37% of Republicans are concerned with COVID-19 and 34% are interested in getting the new vaccine. Other opinions around COVID-19 behavior are similarly split: 70% of Democrats say they are likely to wear a mask in indoor public places compared to 33% of Republicans.

Among Americans who say they are not very or not at all interested in getting the new COVID-19 vaccine, a plurality (36%) say the main reason why is because they consider the vaccines themselves to be dangerous. Americans who say they are interested in getting the vaccine say they are getting it to reduce their own risk of severe illness (42%), reduce risk of transmitting COVID-19 to others (20%), or because they are over 65 years old (18%).

A majority of Americans (but a minority of Republicans) say it’s believable that Trump was behind the actions outlined in the indictments, including that Trump illegally removed classified documents from the White House (63%), solicited election fraud (54%), or tried to incite a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, to overturn the election results (56%).

Most Americans also say they wound not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony crime by a jury (57%) or if he is currently serving time in prison (60%), including around a third of Republicans in both cases (29% and 35%, respectively). Around half of all Republicans say they would vote for Donald Trump in either scenario (52% and 49%, respectively), while about a third of Republicans (32%) say the criminal cases against Trump make them more likely to vote for him in 2024.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 8-14 , 2023 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 4,415 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample also includes 2,024  Democrats, 1,749 Republicans, and 418 independents.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education and political party affiliation.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=4,415, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-3.3 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 5.9 percentage points for independents.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson.

Senior Vice President, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr

Director, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

About Ipsos

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The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Charlie Rollason Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist

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