Reuters/Ipsos Survey: Despite indictments, Trump leads primary field as DeSantis loses support
Most Americans have largely made up their minds about whether the former president is guilty or innocent
Washington DC, August 3, 2023 — New Reuters/Ipsos polling finds that, despite legal troubles, former President Donald Trump maintains his lead over the Republican primary field, as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is losing support. Democrats and Republicans are far apart in how much they’ve heard about the indictments and whether the charges are believable or politically motivated. However, majorities of Democrats and Republicans have made up their mind about whether Trump is innocent or guilty. Most Republicans and those who say they plan to vote for Trump in the primary feel he behaved appropriately around the 2020 election and January 6th. Though, Republicans overall and Trump’s stated primary supporters diverge on whether he acted appropriately when asking former Vice President Mike Pence to reject Biden’s win.
Detailed findings:
Despite indictments, former President Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican primary field.
- Former President Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican primary field (47%). At the same time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ support has dropped to 13%, a six-point drop from mid-July.
- Under half of Republicans (45%) say they would not support Trump if he were convicted of a felony by a jury, while over one in three (35%) say they would support him, and 20% don’t know what they would do.
- Though, more Republicans would support Trump (35%) than an unnamed candidate (19%) if he were convicted of a felony by a jury.
- Similarly, half of Republicans (52%) say they would not support Trump if he was currently serving time in prison, while 28% say they would support him, and 20% are not sure what they would do. Half as many (13%) would support an unnamed candidate in prison.
- Republicans (19%) are twice as likely as Democrats (8%) to say they would vote for an unnamed candidate if that candidate was convicted of a felony by a jury. Republicans (13%) are slightly more likely than Democrats (9%) to say they would vote for a candidate who is currently in prison.
More Republicans than Democrats find the criminal charges against him hard to believe, even as more Democrats than Republicans have heard a great deal about the criminal investigations.
- Democrats (56%) are more likely than Republicans (38%) to say they have heard a great deal about the criminal investigation of Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. A similar pattern holds for awareness about the charges against Trump for his handling of sensitive government documents (52% of Democrats say they have heard a great deal, compared to 41% of Republicans).
- Republicans are much less likely than Democrats or Americans overall to find it believable that Trump solicited election fraud, that he incited a mob on January 6th, or that he was involved in a scheme of fake electors. a
- About half of Americans say the charges against him are politically motivated (48%), 25% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans say this. A majority of Republicans “strongly” agree (56%).
- Relatedly, a majority of Americans (64%) have made up their minds about Donald Trump’s guilt or innocence when it comes to January 6th. Democrats are more likely to feel settled on this matter (76%) than Republicans (67%). Republicans who support him in the primary (80%) are more likely than the general population or Republicans generally to say they have made up their mind about this.
Majorities of Republicans and those who plan to support Trump in the primary feel he behaved appropriately around the 2020 election and January 6th. Though fewer feel his actions towards former Vice President Mike Pence were appropriate.
- A bare majority of Republicans (53%) believe he behaved appropriately on January 6th when talking to his supporters. Among those who say they would vote for him in the primary, 70% say he acted appropriately.
- Similarly, 52% of Republicans say he behaved appropriately when repeatedly saying the election was fraudulent. A decisive majority of those who say they would vote for him in the primary (77%) feel this way.
- Interestingly, only 35% of Republicans say he acted appropriately when asking former Vice President Mike Pence to reject Biden’s win, even as a majority of his stated primary supporters (59%) say he acted appropriately in this case.
- About three in five Republicans (61%) say that Trump used bad judgment on January 6th but is not criminally liable. His stated primary supporters (57%) are equally like to say this as the rest of the Republicans. Only 21% of Democrats agree here.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 2-3, 2023 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,005 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample also includes 444 Democrats, 355 Republicans, and 116 independents.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education and political party affiliation.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.3 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 6.4 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 11.1 percentage points for independents.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S.
Public Affairs
Annaleise Azevedo Lohr
Director, U.S.
Public Affairs
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