Small business sentiment declines as inflation and talent retention are among top concerns
Washington, DC, December 10, 2025 — The Q4 2025 MetLife/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index is 68.4, down from last quarter’s Index score of 72.0. The current Index score is in line with sentiments from this time last year (69.1). Most measures this quarter do not show a significant decline. However, there is a slight softening across some key measures, including comfort with cash flow, the local economic environment, and future expectations, that have contributed to a lower index score. Notably, in a reversal from last quarter, fewer now report being very comfortable with their current cash flow.
This quarter, inflation continues to be the biggest challenge facing small business owners, with concerns remaining stable for the past two quarters. However, more small businesses are reporting increased challenges for both revenue and employee retention. In the same vein, compared to this time last year, concerns about attracting talent have more than doubled.
As the holiday season approaches, a majority of small businesses expect to raise prices and have less revenue than usual due to inflation, though at a lower level when compared to Q4 2022, when inflation was at its peak. Nearly four in five say that the upcoming holiday season is important for their overall profit this year, an increase from this time last year. More plan to hire seasonal employees, as well as offer seasonal discounts and extend regular business hours, compared to Q4 2024. Lastly, a majority of small businesses report donating to local charities this past year and plan to do the same this holiday season.
For more information about this study, please click here.
About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between October 9 – 29, 2025. For this survey, a sample of 754 small business owners and operators age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English.
The sample was randomly drawn from partner online panel sources that specialize in B2B sample and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to the study, in drawing sample. Small businesses are defined in this study as companies with 500 or fewer employees that are not sole proprietorships. This sample calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. small business population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on firmographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on region, industry sector and size of business. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 Statistics of U.S. Businesses dataset. Additional post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on the gender of the business’s owner and whether the business is minority-owned or not. The source of these two weight variables is the Small Business Administration’s 2025 Small Business Profiles.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=754, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/- 5.9 percentage points).
Starting with the March 2020 survey, small business decision makers are reached via an online survey, in place of the typical phone-based approach. This methodological shift is in response to lower anticipated response rates in dialing owners at their businesses as a result of mandated closures related to the COVID-19 outbreak. While significant changes in data points can largely be attributed to the recent economic environment, switching from a phone to online approach may have also generated a mode effect.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374 2613
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