U.S. consumer sentiment remains buoyant

Visit our interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and  sub-indices -- and all the questions on which they are based.

Washington, DC, September 24, 2020 — At 53.9, Ipsos’s U.S. consumer confidence index shows signs of having solidified gains seen last week. The same applies to all sub-indices.

Expectations remain robust, indexing at 66.9. Further, a larger majority of Americans (56%) believe that the economy will pick up quickly once restrictions on business activity are relaxed. However, the nation is still equally divided on the question of whether to allow business to pick up again before the coronavirus is contained.

Beyond this fundamental stability, a divide in outlook and current sentiment is apparent between higher and lower-income Americans. On the Current index, indicative of present financial, purchasing, investment, and job confidence, the score for Americans from households with an income of $100,000 is 56.4 while those with an income of less than $50,000 score 18 points lower at 38.4.

Detailed Findings

1. Scoring at 53.9, the latest overall Consumer Confidence index is down 0.5 points from last week.

• The overall Confidence index is now 5.5 points above its “pandemic average”, and 6.2 points lower than in early March (60.1).

2. The Jobs index is down 1.2 points from last week. Continuing weeks of historic job losses, 825,000 Americans filed first-time applications for jobless benefits last week.

• This week, 43% say they, someone in their family, or someone else they know personally lost their job in the last six months as a result of economic conditions, consistent with 42% last week.
• In addition, 45% think that it is at least somewhat likely that this will be the case in the next six months, down from 49% last week and from 60% when the lockdowns began.

3. The Current, Expectations, and Investment indices are stable as all three moved by less than 1 point since last week.

4. The percentage of Americans who foresee a quick economic recovery rose by 5 points from last week (56% agree; 39% disagree). Among those who believe we should restart the economy even if the virus is not fully contained, 81% also believe that the economy will recover quickly when coronavirus related restrictions are relaxed. On the contrary, of those who do not believe we should restart the economy without the virus fully under control, only 37% believe in a swift economic recovery if restrictions are relaxed.

5. The nation remains divided on restarting the economy even if the coronavirus is not yet fully contained (46% agree that the economy should be allowed to reopen, 48% disagree).

6. Last week’s sharp uptick in Americans’ comfort with making purchases holds up for the most part. 

• Compared to six months ago, 40% say they are more comfortable making a major purchase like a home or a car, consistent with 42% last week.

•  Compared to six months ago, 48% say they are less comfortable making other household purchases, up seven points from 41% last week.

Questions

The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:

1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?

Additional questions

Q. To what extent do you agree with the each of the following

• The economy will recover quickly once the restrictions to control the coronavirus pandemic are relaxed.
• We should restart the economy and allow businesses to open even if the virus is still not fully contained.

About the Study

These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted September 22-23, 2020 with a sample of 923 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=923, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.2 percentage points).

Findings from previous time periods going back to March 2011 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index and a Jobs Index.

Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420 2025
[email protected]

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations Specialist, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]

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