Vibe Check: Consumers are freaking out about the government

The Ipsos Consumer Tracker asks Americans questions about culture, the economy and the forces that shape our lives. Here's one thing we learned this week.

Why we asked: With everything going on in the U.S. these days, and Covid-early-days levels of uncertainty, we started a new module in the Tracker. It asks a two-part question. How uncertain are you feeling about the impacts of the actions of the government and how satisfied do you feel.

What we found: Something is going on with consumers, and they seem to be freaking out. In a chart we’re now calling the Ipsos Vibe Check, we’re measuring uncertainty and satisfaction. We’ve done this now over the last eight weeks and it’s one of those things that shouldn’t really move too far too fast. And yet, there’s a definite shift toward more uncertainty and less satisfaction with the goings on in the government. Now 46% say they have “a lot” of uncertainty (+10pp from February) and an additional 33% have some uncertainty.

If you couple this with the MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index where inflation concerns are at a record level (58%) as are revenue concerns – 35% now cite revenue as a challenge, up 10 points from last quarter – you see a picture of small business owners stressed about both supply and demand. And this was fielded before Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs were announced (and then partially paused). 

In the Ipsos Vibe Check, independent voters have been especially bouncy. This wave saw their uncertainty drop back down to the levels we saw originally (after a 23-point spike) but their satisfaction has fallen more than any group. That’s left them into a quadrant all to their own. But perhaps the real story is Republicans, who have seen 13 points of movement toward more uncertainty in just eight weeks. Though interestingly their mean satisfaction has ticked up a bit (to 3.4) and remains almost a full point higher than any other group or the average (2.5).

Meanwhile, checking back in on our threat index question, twice as many Republicans (20%) now say the political climate is a high threat than they did just two months ago when we started tracking this. Other groups are mostly flat at 30% feeling a high threat. Add in almost four in ten who feel at least moderately threatened and that’s… not great. Only 25% say they feel a low or very low threat. 

More insights from this wave of the Ipsos Consumer Tracker:

Polarization is spilling over into tech, while wokeness stays the same

Four in ten admit to churning streaming services

The Ipsos Care-o-Meter: What does America know about vs. what does America care about