2015 French Regional Elections Forecast Proved Extremely Accurate
Once again, the accuracy of these forecasts gave viewers, listeners and media's political commentators all the keys to understanding the second round.
Abstention at 41.5%, in other words a leap of 8.5 points in turnout compared with the first round, marked a record, with a similar increase not being seen since the second round of the 2002 Presidential elections (8 points). The period between the two rounds was notable for its anti-FN mobilisation.
A victory for the right, quite clearly, but without shining: 7 regions against 5 for the left, being considerably fewer than the opposition had achieved in 2004 and 2010. In addition, this was while the PS had urged voters in 3 regions to vote for right-wing candidates.
Ipsos/Sopra Steria was the only institute to announce the nevertheless decisive swing to the right in the Ile-de-France region, as early as 20:50: a fundamental point, which confirmed the analysis of a right-wing victory.
The strong resistance of the left, which won in 5 regions, although the count was particularly tight in certain regions, such as Centre-Val de Loire and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté.
A Front National beaten in every region and by a clear margin in ACAL (Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne- Lorraine), PACA (Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur) and Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, a sign that the Front républicain worked and that the FN remains a party on its own and one that causes concern.
An FN dynamic that however continued in the second round in most regions.
Furthermore, a large-scale opinion poll showed:
- Disaffection with Nicolas Sarkozy, trailing by 16 points behind Alain Juppé in the LR-UDI in terms of public support for Presidential candidates. Gains in the opposite direction for Alain Juppé and Marine Le Pen.
- Right and left are almost neck and neck in terms of public confidence in their ability to govern the country, with the right slightly ahead (41% for the right, 39% for the left, 20% for the FN), in particular on economic issues.
