24% of likely voters say they support the National Front Party candidate, such as Emmanuel Macron, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18,5%) and François Fillon (18%), Benoît Hamon (8%), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (3.5%) and Philippe Poutou (1,5%). None of the other candidates received more than 1% voting support.
Intention to vote
Nearly two in three (60%) of the interviewees report that they intend to vote in the first round of the election, when turnout is traditionally highest. Intention to vote increases with age.
Uncertainty is high: 40% of likely voters report that they could still change their mind about who to vote for. This is most likely for supporters of Hamon (57% not definite) Macron (45% not definite), and to a lesser extent, Mélenchon (40% not definite). In contrast, both Fillon’s and Le Pen’s supporters are more confident in their choices with respectively 21% (each) reporting that their choice isn’t definite.
A second-round vote would likely see Macron opposing Le Pen, a match that Macron would likely win (with 62% of certain voters choosing him vs. 38% for Marine Le Pen). His victory would be assisted by vote transfers from Hamon’s electorate (76% would vote for Macron in the second round), and to a lesser extent, from Mélenchon’s supporters (47% of whom say they would vote for him on the second round.)
The results are based on a sample of 1,604 registered voters, aged 18+. Interviews were conducted online between April 7 – 9, 2017.
South African Grant Recipients in the Spotlight
In the latest Pulse of the People™ study in South Africa we examined attitudes and opinions of country direction, delivery of government services and opinions of leadership among those who are receiving social grants from the government and those who are not.
2017 French Election: The Lead Narrows for the Two Front Runners (April 19)
With only 4 days until the French Presidential election, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron lead the field in the latest Ipsos/Sopra Steria poll conducted on behalf of CEVIPOF and Le Monde. The results are based on a sample of 11,601 registered voters, aged 18+, with interviews conducted online between 16 – 17 April, 2017.