2017 French Election: Le Pen and Macron Keep the Lead (April 3)
One in four likely voters say they support the National Front Party candidate or Emmanuel Macron with each 25% of likely voters, followed by François Fillon (17,5%). Jean-Luc Mélenchon trails with 15% of likely voters, followed by Benoît Hamon (10%) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (4%). None of the other candidates received more than 1% voting support.
The poll examines vote intention and their potential to win.
Intention to vote
Nearly two in three (64%) of the French people report that they intend to vote in the first round of the election, when turnout is traditionally highest.
First round
Uncertainty remains high: 36% of likely voters report that they could still change their mind about who to vote for. This is most likely for supporters of Hamon (48% not definite) Macron (39% not definite) and Mélenchon (40% not definite). In contrast, Fillon’s and Le Pen’s supporters are more confident in their choices with just 25% and 18% respectively reporting that their choice isn’t definite.
Second round
A second-round vote would likely see Macron opposing Le Pen, a match that Macron would likely win (with 61% of certain voters choosing him vs. 39% for Marine Le Pen). His victory would be assisted by vote transfers from Hamon’s electorate (71% would vote for Macron in the second round), and to a lesser extent, from Mélenchon’s supporters (48% of whom say they would vote for him on the second round.) 85% of likely voters for Emmanuel Macron report that they won’t change their mind, such as the likely voters for Marine Le Pen (84%).
Candidates’ potential to win
Our poll finds that the French people think Macron is the candidate most likely to be elected (77% think that it is certain/chances are high). Almost half feel Le Pen (48%) will take the election, far more than for Fillon (29%), Hamon (15%) or Mélenchon (12%).
