Arya Stark becomes second favorite to take the Throne

Game of Thrones Predictions. Content warning: Spoilers ahead

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  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US
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Washington, DC, May 2, 2019 –  Before the much-anticipated Battle of Winterfell, 12% of Game of Thrones fans correctly predicted the downfall of the Night King. Another 14% correctly predicted the death of Jorah Mormont and 15% predicted the fall of Theon Greyjoy. We pay our respects for the fallen.
Looking forward to this week, fans are placing their bets against Cersei and the Golden Company: 21% think Euron Greyjoy is the next one to die in the series, followed by his ally Cersei Lannister (14%).  Next on the list is a three-way tie between Jaime Lannister, Grey Worm and one (or more) dragons at 12%. Jon Snow is seen relatively safe this week compared to last week. Before the Battle of Winterfell, 12% of fans thought he would be the next one to die. Now that the Night King is defeated, only 4% think that Jon Snow is likely to die next, an eight-point decline.
Arya Stark, who personally stabbed and killed the Night King, is now seen as the second favorite to rule over Westeros. Last week, only 6% of Game of Thrones fans thought she would sit on the Iron Throne. Now that Arya has shown her ruthlessness and heroism in battle, 15% of fans think she is going to be the Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, a nine-point increase. Arya’s rise comes at the expense of Daenerys Targaryen, who dropped to third place of favorites to take over the throne. Last week, one out of five fans (20%) thought Daenerys would end up on the Iron Throne. This week? 13% – a seven-point decline. Jon Snow continues to be the favorite to rule over the Seven Kingdoms (31%), constant from last week (33%).
Arya Stark also leaped forward in the rankings of who should rule over the Iron Throne: 12% of fans think that the person to run Westeros should be her. Thirty-six percent of fans continue to believe that Jon Snow should rule, a slight decline from an all-time high of 41% reached last week. Daenerys Targaryen also experienced a decline of 4 points, with 12% of fans thinking she should rule the throne, tied with Arya.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted between April 29-30, 2019. For the survey, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 278 adults who watch Game of Thrones.
For the wave fielded after episode two, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 267 adults who watch Game of Thrones.
For the wave fielded after episode one, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 15-15, 2019. The sample includes 303 adults who watch Game of Thrones.
For the pre-season wave, a sample of 1,006 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 4-5, 2019. The sample includes 298 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US

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