Consumer confidence moves in opposite directions among world’s largest economies
Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index shows a very slight uptick of 0.3 points from last month as, among 29 economies measured, seven show significant gains in consumer sentiment while three show notable decreases. The global Current and Investment indices each rose by around half a point, while the Expectations and Jobs indices continue to show stability.
Three G7 countries – Japan, Germany, and Canada – show a gain of at least two points in their National Index. Sentiment is also up notably in Turkey, Thailand, Peru, and Hungary.
On the other hand, amid widespread discontent over retirement reform bill, consumer confidence in France has further declined this month (albeit by just one point) and is now at its lowest point in in more than two years. Sentiment is down from last month in Argentina and Chile, and most of all, in Israel – another nation experiencing large street protests.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ Overall or “National” indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 21,000 adults under the age of 75 from 29 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between March 24 and April 7, 2023.
Ipsos has modified the scope the Global Consumer Confidence Index to augment its reliability. From this month on, it consists of 29 countries, including eight countries added in February (Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Peru, Singapore, Thailand) and all of urban India in February. It no longer includes Russia (not measured for over a year), China, and Saudi Arabia. For tracking purposes (“like-for-like comparisons”), Ipsos has recalculated all global and regional indices since the creation of the tracker in 2010 based exclusively on the “legacy 20 countries” that continue to be measured as they have for years. The “legacy 20” consist of Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, and the United States.
Consumer sentiment in 29 countries
Among the 29 countries, Indonesia (63.5) holds the highest National Index score this month and is the only country with a National Index score above 60.
Nine other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Brazil (57.9), Mexico (56.2), India (55.5), Singapore (55.1), Thailand (53.7), the Netherlands (51.7), the United States (50.7), Germany (50.3), and Malaysia (50.2).
In contrast, nine countries now show a National Index below the 40-point mark: France (39.8), Chile (39.3), South Africa (39.1), Japan (38.8), South Korea (38.8), Poland (37.1), Turkey (36.8), Hungary (34.7), and Argentina (33.6).
Compared to 12 months ago, Sweden (-8.0) and Hungary (-7.4) continue to show the steepest drops in consumer sentiment. Brazil (+11.3) and Turkey (+10.5) now show the largest gains.
Trends
Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index (based on all 29 countries surveyed) currently reads at 46.2. Based only on the “legacy 20 countries”, it would read at 44.2, in line with its readings from the past three months.
The Current sub-index, reflecting consumers’ perceptions of the economic climate and their current purchasing, jobs, and investment confidence, shows a slight uptick from last month across the 29 countries of 0.6 point to 36.1. Ten countries show a significant month-over-month gain (at least 2 points) in their Current index, compared to just five countries that show a significant loss.
Likewise, the Investment sub-index, indicative of consumers’ perception of the investment climate, records a 29-country average increase of 0.5 point since last month to 38.3. Nine countries show a significant gain, while Israel and Argentina are the only countries to show significant losses.
The Expectations sub-index, indicative of consumer expectations about future economic conditions, is virtually unchanged (+0.1 point) and sits at 55.8. The economic outlook continues to improve in Turkey, which is up 5 points since last month and up 13 points since last year. In total, four countries show significant gains in their Expectations index, and four show significant losses.
The Jobs sub-index, reflecting perceptions about jobs security and the jobs market, shows stability (+0.3) and sits at 56.1 this month. Similar to the Expectations index, the outlook in Turkey is up significantly. Seven countries show significant gains in their Jobs index, while five countries show significant losses.
About the study
These findings are based on data from a monthly 29-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online survey platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform. They are first reported each month by Refinitiv as the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
The results are based on interviews with over 21,200 adults aged 18+ in India, 18-74 in Canada, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries.
