Drop in global consumer confidence slows

Consumer expectations are picking up.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US
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At 40.0, the Global Consumer Confidence Index for June is down 1.3 points from last month, 8.7 points compared to its pre-pandemic level of January, and almost 7 points lower than at any time since its creation in March 2010. However, the past month drop in the index is significantly less steep than those seen between March and April (4.1 points) and between April and May (3.1), suggesting that the decline in consumer sentiment is bottoming out.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of each of the 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 across 24 countries, conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform.

Between May and June, 12 of the 24 countries show a drop of at least 1.5 points in their National Index. However, no country shows its index falling by more than four points, while five countries show no change or some improvement, including Japan (+0.1), South Korea (+0.4), Italy (+0.6), China (+0.8), and Australia (+2.0).

Furthermore, the Expectations Index, reflective of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation and employment, shows a slight uptick over last month (+0.7) to 49.0. It is up significantly in Australia (+5.4), China (+3.8), Italy (+2.9), the United States (+2.3), Canada (+2.1), Germany (+2.0), Turkey (+1.6), Japan (+1.5), and Hungary (+1.5). While four countries still show falling expectations – Argentina (-2.2), Great Britain (-2.0), India (-1.8), and South Africa (-1.5) – these drops are all much smaller than in previous months:

National Index Trends

Compared to January, every single country’s National Index is down—by more than 10 points in eight countries (the United States, Israel, Mexico, Brazil, Canada, India, Poland, and Spain) and by five to 10 points in 10 other countries.

  • While 11 of the 24 countries surveyed had a National Index higher than 50 back in January, this is now the case in only two countries: China (67.4) and Saudi Arabia (60.4).
  • At the other end of the spectrum, seven countries now have a National Index below 35, as compared to just one (Turkey) in January: Turkey (29.4), Russia (30.0), South Africa (31.4), Spain (31.8), Japan (31.9), Italy (33.7), and Mexico (34.0).

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

At a global level, while the Expectations Index is up slightly compared to last month, the Jobs Index and the Investment Index both show a continued drop of about two points.

  • The Jobs Index (46.3), indicative of confidence in job security and employment outlook, is not showing any significant gain in any country and is down by more than 1.5 points in 14 countries (most sharply in Brazil, South Africa, Great Britain, and Hungary).
  • The Investment Index (33.8), indicative of the investment climate, is significantly up in only one country (Australia), while it is significantly down in 15 countries (most of all in India, Brazil, and South Africa).

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends | Consumer Confidence Index | Ipsos

Visit our interactive portal, Ipsos' Consolidated Economic Indicators for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices—and all the questions on which they are based.

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US

Consumer & Shopper