Global consumer confidence at highest reading since March 2020

Jobs Index displays sixth consecutive month of gains

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, US
  • Kate Silverstein Public Affairs, US
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Washington, DC, June 16, 2021 —Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Index gains a full point from last month, now reading at 47.3. In parallel, with a 1.1-point increase, the Expectations Index is at its highest reading since late 2018.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of 24 countries’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between May 21 and June 4, 2021.
Eight of the 24 countries surveyed show significant growth in their National Index when compared to last month: Spain (+3.6), Poland (+3.4), Italy (+3.2), Germany (+2.5), Israel (+2.4), the United States (+2.2), France (+1.9), and Sweden (+1.5). As was already the case in May, India (-1.8) and Turkey  (-1.5) are the only two countries to display a significant decline.

National Index Trends

With a month-on-month gain of 1.0 point, the Global Consumer Confidence Index reads at 47.3. This is the seventh month of gains, marking a 5.3 point increase from November 2020.  

  • This month, 10 countries have a National Index above the 50 mark: China (72.8), Saudi Arabia (65.7), the United States (61.7), Sweden (58.8), Australia (56.7), Great Britain (55.2), Germany (54.9), India (51.2), Canada (51.1), and Israel (50.2).
  • Turkey (28.5) and Argentina (33.9) remain the only two countries with a National Index below 35.
  • Spain (+3.6), Poland (+3.4), and Italy (+3.2) all display significant growth from last month, yet they each hover below the average of 47.3 by more than 4 points.
  • The Global Consumer Index remains 1.3 points shy of its pre-pandemic level of January 2020. However, among the 24 countries, 13 have regained all the losses in their National Index incurred since then.

 

Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Index Trends

At a global level, the Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Indices all display significant month-on-month gains (at least 0.5 points), now for the fourth month in a row. Four countries see significant gains (at least 1.5 points) across all three indices: Poland, Italy, Spain, and Germany. None of the countries surveyed record significant drops on any of the three indices.

  • The global Jobs Index is up 1.1 points from May 2021 and currently sits at 53.2. This month marks its highest rating since March 2020 (57.0), but the global Jobs Index remains 3.3 points below its reading in January 2020. Israel, Spain, and Italy display the largest gains, while India is the only market to show a significant month-over-month loss in the measure.
  • Marking another month of significant gains, the global Investment Index currently sits at 41.3. The Investment Index is up 0.8 point from last month but trails its January 2020 reading by 1.1 points. The largest month-on-month gains are seen in Spain, Italy, Poland, Germany, and Sweden. Similar to the Jobs Index, India is the only market to record a significant decline compared to May 2021.  
  • At 58.1, the Expectations Index is alone in surpassing its January 2020 level (+1.2). The Expectations Index displays a 1.1-point significant gain from May 2021, with nine of the 24 countries showing significant growth as well. Month-on-month gains larger than 2.5 points are recorded in Poland, France, Italy, and Spain. Turkey alone displays a significant drop compared to last month, and six countries remain significantly below their January 2020 readings (Argentina, Turkey, Japan, Brazil, South Africa, and India).
expectations index
Visit our interactive portal, Consolidated Economic Indicators for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices—and all the questions on which they are based.
 
These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working-age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, mainland China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click here for more information.
The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.
The results reported each month in the Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.

 

 

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, US
  • Kate Silverstein Public Affairs, US

Consumer & Shopper