Consumer confidence: Global index stability betrays divergent trends at the local level

Sentiment shifting significantly in half of the countries surveyed – downward for some, upward for others.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US
  • Neil Lloyd Senior Research Analyst, Public Affairs
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Unchanged from October, Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Index still reads at 48.5. Though consumer sentiment remains stable in aggregate at the global level, it is more volatile at the local level, with about half of the countries surveyed showing a significant change to their National Index scores from last month.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of 24 countries’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between October 22 and November 5, 2021.

While overall global consumer confidence is unchanged, scores at the country level see much more fluctuation. Almost half of the countries surveyed, 11 out of 24, see significant changes (at least +/- 1.5 points) to their National Index scores, with five seeing considerable increases and six seeing significant decreases.

At the global level, the Jobs, Investment, and Expectations sub-indices all remain stable this month. Three countries (Mexico, Japan, and South Africa) each show meaningful gains across all three sub-indices, while Poland posts significant losses across all of them.

National Index Trends

The Global Consumer Confidence Index has seen little movement since July (48.3), holding steady at around 48.5 since then. While the global average score has not changed from last month, five countries see significant gains in their National Index scores (Mexico +3.0, Japan +2.3, South Africa +1.9, Australia +1.8, and India +1.5), and six countries experience significant drops (Poland -2.4, Great Britain -2.0, the U.S. -2.0, Belgium -1.8, Russia -1.6, and Spain -1.6).

  • This month, nine countries have a National Index above 50: China (72.6), Saudi Arabia (64.6), Sweden (61.2), India (58.6), the U.S. (56.2), Australia (55.9), Germany (55.4), Canada (54.1), and Great Britain (51.5).
  • Turkey (30.3) remains the only country with a National Index below 35.
  • Consumer confidence in most countries has held steady since July, mirroring the global average score. However, India’s National Index, now experiencing its fourth consecutive month of growth, has increased by a total of 7.7 points since July. Japan and South Africa have also seen considerable gains since July, growing by 4.7 and 4.4 points, respectively.
  • Conversely, consumer sentiment in the U.S. has dropped significantly since July, losing 5.7 points. Great Britain and Israel also post large drops of 4.5 and 4.2 points, respectively over the past four months.

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

On a global level, all three sub-indices have hardly changed from last month (Jobs +0.4, Expectations -0.2, Investment -0.2). Mexico, Japan, and South Africa each show significant gains (at least + 1.5 points) from last month across all three sub-indices, and Australia sees meaningful gains across two sub-indices. In contrast, Poland experiences a significant drop across all sub-indices, and Great Britain, the U.S., Russia, and Belgium each see considerable drops across two sub-indices.

  • The global Jobs Index, currently sitting at 56.1, shows little change from October (55.7) and remains slightly below its January 2020 reading (56.4). Turkey, Mexico, South Africa, Japan, Sweden, and India display the largest gains, while China, Poland, and the U.S. show a significant month-over-month decline in the measure. Though Mexico posts significant growth this month, its Jobs Index score remains 5.9 points below where it stood in January 2020.
  • After dropping last month for the first time in over a year, the global Investment Index holds steady this month, only falling by 0.2 point to 41.9. Mexico, Japan, China, Australia, India, and South Africa each see significant month-on-month gains while Great Britain, Poland, the U.S., Belgium, Russia, Spain, Germany, and Israel all see a significant drop from last month.
  • The global Expectations Index, which currently sits at 58, experiences no meaningful change from last month. Expectations are up significantly from last month in Mexico, Japan, Australia, and South Africa. Five European countries (Poland, Russia, Great Britain, Spain, and Belgium) see a significant drop in expectations since October. Expectations remain significantly lower than their January 2020 level in six countries: Argentina, Turkey, Israel, Poland, the U.S., and Brazil.

Visit our interactive portal, Consolidated Economic Indicators for graphic comparisons and trended data pertaining to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices—and all the questions on which they are based.

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US
  • Neil Lloyd Senior Research Analyst, Public Affairs

Consumer & Shopper