Global Consumer Confidence Holds Steady at 49.9 in November
This November’s Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index continues to hover around 50 as it has for much of the past year. The index comes in at 49.9, showing a three-month drop of 0.6 points. China increases its lead as the most confident global economy with yet another record high score (+1.9 to 75.5), while the United States (+0.9 to 62.7) moves to second place ahead of India (-2.2 to 61.8). Saudi Arabia (+3.3 to 61.5) regains an index value of 60 for the first time since August 2016. In the wake of an election that saw no clear party majority emerge, Sweden (-1.5 to 59.7) falls below 60 points for the first time since December 2016. Turkey (-7.3 to 34.2), Argentina (-3.8 to 35.4), and South Africa (-2.7 to 39.1) report in as both the most pessimistic countries and those with the most significant three-month decreases in consumer confidence. Five other countries also show drops of 1.5 points or more, including France (-2.6 to 40.8), and Spain (-2.6 to 42.2). Other than Saudi Arabia and China, the only country showing a notable jump in confidence is Brazil (+4.1 to 46.0), following the election of Jair Bolsonaro.
This month’s global Jobs Index falls 0.5 point to 58.6. Four countries enjoy Jobs Index scores of more than 70 points: the US (+2.1 to 74.9), Sweden (-2.2 to 73.5), Germany (+0.7 to 73.0), and Canada (+2.3 to 70.8). The US and Canada are joined by Brazil (+2.9 to 37.4) as the top gainers. Despite reporting the most index growth, Brazil remains the lowest scorer. Countries with the next lowest scores include Argentina (-3.4 to 41.5), Turkey (-5.0 to 42.4), and South Africa (-2.2 to 43.5). While China sees gains on all other metrics, its Jobs Index is significantly down compared to three months ago (-3.4 to 69.4).
China (+1.8 to 75.1) remains the lone country with an Expectations Index value above 70. China also reports this month’s fourth largest gain in future expectations, surpassed only by Canada (+2.2 to 62.6), Saudi Arabia (+3.5 to 66.7), and a surging Brazil (+5.0 to 66.8). However, the worldwide trend is down as the global Expectations Index shows a 0.6-point drop. Turkey (-7.3 to 42.6) reports both the lowest Expectations Index score of any country and the most negative three-month change. Expectations are also down in the next two lowest-scoring countries, France (-2.1 to 47.9) and South Africa (-3.7 to 48.7) as well as in Spain (-2.7 to 52.0), South Korea (-2.1 to 51.0), Great Britain (-1.7 to 52.7), and Mexico (-1.7 to 64.0).
Although the global Investment Index shows a 0.7-point drop to 43.2, China’s index (+4.6 to 78.8) grows to an unprecedented level. Other countries showing gains include Saudi Arabia (+4.9 to 62.7), Brazil (+4.3 to 46.4), and Germany (+1.8 to 48.1). In contrast, nine countries see their Investment Index score decrease significantly. These include the three markets with the lowest scores, Turkey (-9.7 to 25.9), Japan (-1.5 to 26.9), and Argentina (-5.2 to 27.6), as well as India (-3.7 to 62.1), which goes down from second to third place.
