Half of public think Brexit is working out as expected

Ipsos MORI's May 2018 Political Monitor shows half of public think Brexit is working out as expected while four in ten think that it is worse.

Half of public think Brexit is working out as expected

The author(s)

  • Gideon Skinner Ipsos Public Affairs, UK
  • Glenn Gottfried Ipsos Public Affairs, UK
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  • Half of public think Brexit is working out as expected – four in ten that it is worse.
  • Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain from the EU negotiations remains low

Most Britons are not very confident that Theresa May will get a good deal for Britain from the Brexit negotiations, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. A third (34%) say they are confident when asked if Prime Minister will get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with other European Union leaders while nearly two-thirds (63%) are not. This shows a slight drop from March when 37% said they were confident and 59% were not confident, and down from 44% with confidence in her in March 2017.

Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain
The new poll also asks the public if they believe Britain’s exit from the European Union is working out better or worse, or about the same as they expected. Half (48%) say that it is going as they expected while two in five (39%) say it is going worse than expected. Just 9% say it is going better than expected. There are some differences between party supporters with just over half (53%) of Conservatives saying it is going as expected and 27% worse (16% say better) while two in five (41%) Labour supporters say it is going as expected and half (50%) say worse.

How Brexit is meeting expectations
There has been little change from last month when it comes to leadership satisfaction ratings. Thirty-seven percent say they are satisfied with how Theresa May is doing her job as Prime Minister (down 1 point) with 56% saying they are dissatisfied (up 1 point) leaving her with a net satisfaction score of -19. A third (32%) say they are satisfied with how Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job (no change) while 56% say they are dissatisfied (down 3 points) leaving him with a net satisfaction score of -24. Twenty-eight percent say they are satisfied with Vince Cable (no change) while a third (33%) are dissatisfied (down 2 points) leaving him with a net satisfaction score of -5 – two in four (39%) however say they don’t know.

Despite little overall change in leadership satisfaction scores Theresa May has seen a small decline in satisfaction from her own supporters. Seven in ten (70%) Conservatives say they are satisfied in the Prime Minister (down 7 points) while a quarter (27%) say they are dissatisfied in her (up 8 points) –leaving her with a net satisfaction score of +46. There has been little change when it comes to Labour supporters and Jeremy Corbyn however where 60% say they are satisfied with Mr Corbyn (no change) and 30% dissatisfied (down 4 points) – leaving him a net score of +30.

There has been no change in the Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index with 23% saying the economy will get better in the next 12 months (no change) and 46% saying it will get worse (no change) leaving a net EOI score of -23 (no change).

Our ongoing voting intention figures show little change with the Conservative and Labour running neck-and-neck with both on 40%, and the Liberal Democrats on 7%.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI, said:

Confidence in the Prime Minister to get a good deal on Brexit has slipped (especially compared with before the election), and now stands at similar levels as confidence in David Cameron just before the referendum vote.  But despite that she still retains the support of most Conservative voters.  Half of Conservatives also think Brexit is working out as they expected – similar to the feelings of the public overall.  Four in ten Britons, though, say its working out worse than they expected.  Along with the NHS, Brexit remains one of the most important issues facing the country in the eyes of voters, although it has slightly slipped in recent months.

Technical Note
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,015 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 18th – 22nd May 2018.  Data are weighted to the profile of the population.

 

The author(s)

  • Gideon Skinner Ipsos Public Affairs, UK
  • Glenn Gottfried Ipsos Public Affairs, UK

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