Blair - One Year On
Most observers would agree that Tony Blair has enjoyed a successful first year in office. With the exception of a short blip during the summer, his new Government has enjoyed an extended honeymoon period, and - with the celebrations now over - Labour continues to hold a powerful lead over the Conservatives.
In this paper, we have sought to present an end-of-year overview of how the public have responded to Labour's first year in office. We have looked beyond the voting intention figures to try to establish some of the dynamics currently at work. To what extent are Labour's poll figures dependent on ratings of its leader? How far have the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats come over the year? And what can we learn from comparisons with previous post-war governments? In doing so, we can start to make some tentative assessments of just how rosy Labour's current position is as it moves into the second phase of this Parliament, and seeks to ensure that the foundations for a second term are soundly in place.
The Current Landscape
For Tony Blair, perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the current voting intention numbers is that Labour is achieving - one year into government - polling figures which are in line with those it was recording at the height of its pre-election popularity in 1995-96. MORI's March 1998 poll for The Times puts Labour on 53%, with the Conservatives on 28% and the Liberal Democrats on 14%. This suggests that the Party has built significantly on the 44% share that it achieved at the ballot box on 1 May.
Labour's current party support figures exceed - but only just - the highest level of support achieved by the Conservatives during the 1979-97 parliaments: the 50% share recorded in August 1988. The most startling contrast with that time lies in the share of support enjoyed by the Opposition; by 1988 Neil Kinnock's modernisation was well under way, and the 36% Labour recorded at that time is almost ten points higher than the Tories' current levels. At that time, of course, the Liberal Democrats were emerging from the ashes of the Alliance and presented a far weaker third force in British politics than Paddy Ashdown's party currently does. The Liberal Democrats' share of support often falls away a little outside election campaigns, but even so their current 14-15% is far more significant than they 8% they were recording in 1988. It will be fascinating to see how the relationship between the Liberal Democrats and the Government develops over the next few years; as we show later, the attitudes of their supporters suggest that many of them are impressed with the record of the Government to date. If sustained, this could be a serious problem for the Conservatives.
The Conservative Party, after suffering such a crushing defeat, was perhaps always going to experience difficulties increasing its poll share in the short term. After falling to low points of 23-25% for the latter part of 1997, the party has shown some improvements in recent months, but is clearly experiencing difficulties in making sustained inroads.
