Britain And The US

Big events shape public opinion. Public opinion shapes the political scene. Four months before the invasion of the Falklands, Mrs. Thatcher was the least popular prime minister in polling history. John Major was little known when he became Prime Minister in November 1990, just before the Gulf War. His rating rose faster than anyone before. However, after Black Wednesday, his rating fell even faster. After dropping sharply over the past year, Blair's satisfaction rating took a 12 point jump between the end of February and the end of March.

Britain may be thought by some to have nailed their colour too firmly to the American mast, and thus run the risk of alienation from Europe. But many fewer people now than a decade ago see Europe as most important to Britain and more say the US.

In 1993 more than half, 57 per cent, said Europe was the most important when compared to America at 18 per cent and the Commonwealth (15 per cent), but now 42 per cent say Europe is, down 15 points. America on the other hand is now seen by a third, 34 percent, as the most important, the highest number in more than thirty years, more than double a decade ago.

While favourability towards the United States has dropped sharply during these past few months, its role as the only superpower and Britain's most reliable ally is acknowledged by British public opinion. In July last year, 75 per cent of the British in a poll by the American researchers Pew said they were generally favourable to the United States, while only 16 per cent said they were unfavourable. In March, when they repeated the question, favourability had dropped to 37 per cent, while 40 percent said they were generally unfavourable, a swing of -15.5 per cent.

But when we asked about Britain's most reliable ally, the USA is the only game in town, with three people in four saying it is the US, with the next strongest contender being Australia, with just four per cent. Over half, 55 per cent, said that France was our least reliable ally.

The Chancellor's pronouncement on the euro's five economic tests is imminent, so both Numbers 10 and 11 will be pouring over the public's slight shift against the euro in our poll. While the more simple support/oppose questions have shown some of the impact of recent months, especially that of the French President's behaviour over the veto of any UN Security Council resolution, the fact that strongly held opposition to the war is at its all time high will dampen any thought in the PM's mind about an early referendum.

With 33 per cent strongly opposed to Britain joining the euro, it would only take another 18 per cent from the 67 percent remaining to defeat a proposal to scrap the pound, while with 15 per cent strongly supporting it, another 36 per cent, double, would be required to pass it.

The Prime Minister was able to turn public opinion from 67 per cent against Britain joining the ground war without UN sanctions or a 'smoking gun', into a two to one majority once Tommy won the war. But the euro would be much harder to swing.

Much is made of the volatility of public opinion on such matters, but with little significant movement in the public's hostility to the euro over many years now, it is difficult to see how the europhiles can garner enough support to chance a vote on the euro in the life of this parliament, and perhaps even the next.

[There is speculation about the role of the media in forming people's views. Interestingly, it is readers of the Sun and the midmarket tabloids, the Express and the Mail, together with readers of the Daily Telegraph who are most opposed to the euro, while readers of the Times are on balance supportive, despite that paper's consistent euroscepticism.]

This article was originally printed in the Financial Times on 28 April 2003

Sir Robert Worcester is the Chairman of MORI