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Britons narrowly split between Labour led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, poll reveals

When asked to choose between the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, 39% of Britons prefer Labour, while 35% prefer Reform UK.

New data from Ipsos in the UK’s Political Pulse survey, taken from the 9th-12th January, shows that when asked to choose between the Labour party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Labour narrowly leads (39% to 35%). 

Labour vs. Reform UK

When asked to choose between Labour led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage on a range of key issues:  

  • Labour leads on dealing with climate change (33% vs 15%), improving the NHS (34% vs 22%), and improving education (32% vs 21%).
  • Reform UK is trusted more for managing immigration and asylum (44% vs. 23%), strengthening Britain's defence and armed forces (33% vs. 26%), and supporting British businesses (32% vs 28%).
  • The parties are neck and neck on reducing the cost of living (27% vs 25%), boosting international trade and encouraging investment (30% vs 29%), and managing the economy (29% vs 28%). They are tied on setting the right level of tax (27% each). 

When given a choice between Labour led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons trust Labour more on the NHS, climate change, and education. Britons trust Reform UK more on managing immigration and asylum, and strengthening Britian's defence and armed forces
Keir Starmer head-to-head

  • When the public are asked whether Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than a host of leading politicians, he continues to be neck and neck with Nigel Farage (31% vs 31%) and Kemi Badenoch (26% vs 25%).
  • Starmer leads Health Secretary Wes Streeting by 7 points, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner by 13 points, and Green Party leader Zack Polanski by 10 points.
  • Starmer trails Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham by 7 points. however, Burnham’s lead is down from 13 points last month. 

Andy Burnham is the only politician on our list preferred to Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. Starmer is neck and neck with Farage and Badenoch
 

Nigel Farage head-to-head

  • Nigel Farage is neck and neck with Keir Starmer (31% vs 32%), Andy Burnham (29% vs 27%), and Kemi Badenoch (24% vs 22%) in terms of who would make the better Prime Minister.
  • Farage holds a 6-point lead over Health Secretary Wes Streeting (29% vs 23%).

Nigel Farage is neck and neck with Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, and Kemi Badenoch in terms of who would make the better Prime Minister
Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics at Ipsos said: 

When you force the public to make a choice between Labour and Keir Starmer or Reform UK and Nigel Farage the public are split. This suggests it is in Labour’s interests to portray a future General Election as a binary choice, even if current voting intention polling is not playing out that way. Meanwhile, the economy and cost of living promise to be key battleground issues moving forward, with Labour and Reform UK neck and neck on who is most trusted on these issues.

Technical note: 

  • Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,136 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted online between 9th-12th January 2026.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.   

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