Reform hold 7-point lead over Labour - Ipsos poll

•    Reform UK continue to hold a clear lead headline voting intention on 27%. Their vote share is up two points from April. Labour are on 20%, up on. 
•    Andy Burnham is seen as the more likely to have what it takes to be a good PM (28%) than Keir Starmer (18%). 

London, UK. Ipsos’ latest Political Monitor is now released, with fieldwork carried out 14-20 May 2026.

Headline voting intention (Changes since April)

Reform UK continue to lead on headline voting intention. They are on 27%, up two points from April. This halts a steady decline in Reform’s vote share from September, where their vote share had fallen from 34% in September 2025 to 25% in April 2026. Reform’s lead (+7) is also up one point from last month. Labour are in second place, closely followed by the Conservatives.

•    Reform 27% (+2)
•    Labour 20% (+1)
•    Conservative 19% (No change)   
•    Greens 14% (-3)
•    Lib Dems 12% (-2)
•    Others 8% (+1)
•    Reform UK lead: +7 (up one point from April)

Satisfaction ratings:  (Changes since April)

Each month Ipsos ask the public whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with how the government are running the country and how various politicians are doing their jobs; Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, Rachel Reeves as Chancellor and various other politicians as leaders of their respective parties. Here is a summary of this month’s scores:

•    Government: 13% satisfied (-3 from April), 79% dissatisfied (+1). Net satisfaction -66.
•    Keir Starmer:  16% satisfied (-2), 76% dissatisfied (+2). Net satisfaction -60.
•    Kemi Badenoch: 28% satisfied (+3), 48% dissatisfied (-4). Net satisfaction -20.
•    Nigel Farage: 27% satisfied (-2), 57% dissatisfied (-2). Net satisfaction -30.
•    Ed Davey: 23% satisfied (-2), 41% dissatisfied (nc). Net -18.
•    Zack Polanski: 21% satisfied (-7), 49% dissatisfied (+7). Net -28. 
•    Rachel Reeves: 15% satisfied (+2), 67% dissatisfied (-5). Net -52.

Most capable PM: (Changes since April)

•    Nigel Farage 18% (-1)
•    Keir Starmer 16% (-5)
•    Kemi Badenoch 15% (nc)
•    None/no difference 31% (+4)

Has what it takes to be a good PM 

•    In our list of politicians, Andy Burnham (28%) is most likely to be seen as having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister. Burnham’s net rating is zero (28% disagree), meaning his rating is in line with his rating from March 2026 (27% agree/ 29% disagree). 
•    Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch (both 24%) closely follow Burnham. However, Burnham’s net rating of zero is stronger than Farage’s (-33) and Badenoch's (-18), as more people disagree they have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister (Farage 57% disagree, Badenoch 42% disagree).
•    Keir Starmer’s ratings on this measure are in line with when we last asked this question in March 2026. 19% agree he has what it takes to be a good PM (-3) and 60% disagree      (-1). His ratings continue to be similar to Boris Johnson’s lowest score in January 2022 (23% agree, 64% disagree) and worse than Theresa May’s lowest score in March 2019 (30% agree, 57% disagree).
•    However, outside of Andy Burnham, the public continue to be unconvinced by several touted alternatives to Starmer. Just 12% think Angela Rayner has what it takes (+1), 11% think Ed Miliband has what it takes (-1) and 9% think Wes Streeting has what it takes (nc). 
•    54% Britons do not think Zack Polanski has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister (+11), while just 14% agree (-2).

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said

Following a successful local election, Reform UK maintain a solid lead over Labour in terms of voting intention. 
Looking ahead, whilst Keir Starmer’s leadership of Labour – and position as Prime Minister – are clearly under threat, it is notable that only Andy Burnham stands out as a popular alternative with the public. Which makes the Makerfield by-election such a politically consequential significant event. 

Technical note

•    For media queries, please contact Owen Evans at [email protected] or 07814211915. 
•    For the full findings, please visit the Ipsos website. 

Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,137 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between the 14th – 20th Mayl  2026. Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 2,305 adults aged 18+ were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by nation, age, qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election (as collected immediately after the election). The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:

• Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
• Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Government Office region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade (office coded), number of cars in household, constituency type, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2021/22 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys. 
   
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
• Note that this is a new methodology implemented since June 2025. It involves a new form of data collection (online random probability panel instead of quota telephone survey), an updated voting intention (which involves prompting for Reform UK), and an updated weighting scheme.  This is based on our learnings during and since the 2024 General Election.  This means that comparisons with previous waves need to be made with caution.