EU referendum update: Daily voting patterns
Our final EU referendum poll, carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday and published this morning in the Evening Standard, showed an overall voting intention figure among all those registered, most likely to vote and for whom the result was important, of 52% supporting remain and 48% leave. Further analysis of results from each of the two days individually showed figures of 51% remain/49% leave on Tuesday, and 54% remain/46% leave on Wednesday.
To investigate whether this pattern continued, we have continued interviewing over the course of today, polling day, carrying out a further 546 telephone interviews this afternoon and this evening. The results from today’s interviewing also give voting figures of 54% remain/46% leave. Meanwhile, the public’s expectations of a leave victory have fallen over the three days, from 25% on Tuesday to 20% on Thursday. As may be expected, the proportion of voters who had definitely decided increased from 85% on the Tuesday to 94% on the Wednesday.
Technical Note
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 546 British adults aged 18+ by telephone on Thursday 23 June 2016. Data are weighted to the profile of the population. We included educational attainment quotas and weights, and base voting figures on all registered with our standard turnout filter, plus a measure of how important the referendum outcome is to individuals, to help identify motivated voters. See here for more information.
