Further Thoughts On Iraq

Few political issues so dominate the public consciousness as the Iraq crisis is doing at the moment: 55% of the public named defence/foreign affairs as the single most important issue facing the country in the last MORI Political Monitor, and a further 7% chose nuclear weapons or disarmament. The National Health Service, the public's perennial obsession, is now of primary concern only to 6% - almost unprecedentedly, not even in the top three.

The MORI poll on the Iraq crisis published earlier this week showed signs that Tony Blair is starting to claw back ground lost over the past six months, with a ten-point increase in approval of his handling of the situation since January (36% now approve, while 53% disapprove). On the other hand, the February MORI Political Monitor, conducted the weekend before the Iraq poll, found Mr Blair's ratings as Prime Minister continuing to fall, to their lowest level since the fuel crisis before the last election. These two trends are not necessarily contradictory, however - they simply reflect the increasing importance of the possibility of war as a political issue, so that even while the Prime Minister is winning over some of his critics on Iraq, rather more of the public who are opposed to his stance on Iraq but otherwise generally supportive are finding that Iraq has become uppermost in their minds and therefore give him the thumbs down.

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Prime Minister, Tony Blair, is handling the current situation with Iraq?

This becomes a little clearer when we look at the party allegiances of his supporters and opponents. Among Labour supporters, Mr Blair's ratings are very similar both on Iraq and his general performance as Prime Minister, around half supporting him in each case. Among Conservatives, though, there is a very sharp difference, more than half-as-many-again backing his handling of the Iraq situation as are satisfied overall with the way he is doing his job as Prime Minister. (Among Lib Dems the figure for support on Iraq is also a little higher, but this is not statistically significant.)

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Prime Minister, Tony Blair, is handling the current situation with Iraq?

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?

This suggests that Labour supporters are not prepared to give their leader credit for other achievements of his government if they disapprove of the stance he is taking over Iraq, though some Conservatives while disliking the Prime Minister's overall record approve of his Iraq stance - but remain Tories and are not being swung over to Labour as a result. Given the various domestic crises and controversial policy decisions which seem to be accumulating as the build-up to war continues, this is perhaps ominous for the government's political standing once the Iraq question has been resolved one way or another.

While there was a clear swing between January and March both in approval of Mr Blair's handling of Iraq and on willingness to commit British troops, the swing in favour of George W Bush was much less marked- approval rose from 19% to 23%, only a four-point increase, leaving him well below his rating in September when we first asked specifically about the Iraq situation. Only a year before that, in September 2001, 72% of Britons approved of the President's handling of the American response to the September 11 attacks.

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of America, George W. Bush, is handling the current situation with Iraq (the country ruled by Saddam Hussein)?

Nevertheless, we see some evidence that Tony Blair's campaigning alongside President Bush is beginning to have effect. It has been a constant in our previous polls on Iraq and on the earlier situation arising out of September 11, that while approval of Mr Blair has been higher among Labour supporters than among Conservatives, the opposite has been the case for Mr Bush. In January for example, 27% of Conservatives but only 18% of Labour supporters approved of President Bush's handling of the situation. This is not true in the latest poll - Tory approval of Mr Bush still stands on 27%, but Labour approval has now slipped past it and stands at 29%. It may be that the Prime Minister's trust in and support for his ally has started to rub off on his supporters. That said, these are still depressingly low figures for those who believe in a "special relationship" between Britain and the USA.

Most reporting of our poll has concentrated on the finding that three quarters (75%) of people in Britain would now be prepared to support British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq. However, the question made to clear that this support is conditional both on UN inspectors finding proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and on the UN Security Council voting in favour of military action. Arguably, either of these appear particularly likely at the moment. In the absence of these two conditions, only a quarter (24%) would support British involvement, and opposition rises from 18% to 67%.

There is nothing very surprising, or very new, about this level of potential support for a war in certain hypothetical circumstances; most of the British public are not pacifists. In September 2002, 71% of people in Britain supported British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq if there were UN approval, though this had dropped to 61% by January.

Q Would you support or oppose Britain joining any American-led military action against Iraq, with UN approval?

Q Would you support or oppose Britain joining any American-led military action against Iraq, without UN approval?

Q Would you support or oppose British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq in each of the following circumstances?

• The UN inspectors find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and the UN security council votes in favour of military action
• The UN inspectors find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, but the UN security council does not vote in favour of military action
• The UN inspectors do not find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, but the UN security council votes in favour of military action
• The UN inspectors do not find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and the UN security council does not vote in favour of military action

There has also been a fall in the number of people who would oppose military action without UN backing. In September 2002, seven in 10 Britons (70%) opposed action without the backing of the UN, and this opposition rose to 77% by January. The latest poll shows the equivalent figure now down to 67% (although it should be borne in mind that the question wording was different, and this should not be viewed as a direct comparison.) Either a positive vote by the UN or proof of hidden weapons found by the inspectors would cut this opposition substantially, giving a broadly even split in public opinion; but it would take both, the public tell us, to reach a consensus of support for a war. What, if anything, do Mr Bush and Mr Blair have up their sleeves?