General Election 2001 - Election Digest

Election Commentary - And They're Off…

The election begins with the most recently published polls by all the companies showing Labour's lead over the Tories slightly lower than was the case before the election was called in 1997:

Canvass Leaks Suggests Election Downturn for Tories Two Negatives, but still positive for Labour NOP/Powerhouse Poll: Tories Up

Canvass Leaks Suggests Election Downturn for Tories

The Conservative Party fears it could suffer a heavier General Election defeat than in 1997 if results from a leaked private canvass are borne out in the impending National election.

Leaked details of the Conservative Central Office canvassing exercise found similar levels of Tory support within 15 target seats in or just outside of London to their 1997 National result of 31 per cent.

The Times reports that the Conservative Party takes their canvass returns more seriously than the findings of published polls, because they have in this case spoken to between 20 and 30 per cent of voters in these seats.

Source: The Sunday Times 6 May 2001 Technical details: Leaked.

Two Negatives, but still positive for Labour

The Sunday Times reports that for the first time in four General Elections, the two main Party leaders are both viewed negatively by the electorate, according to a MORI survey. The report is based on analysis published on MORI's website, www.ipsos-mori.com

Tony Blair currently has a net rating of -0.3 percentage points, whist William Hague's currently stands at -13 percentage points.

Just prior to the 1997 General Election Blair achieved a positive score of 9.6 percentage points recorded by MORI in Spring 1997, compared to the -4.6 achieved by the then Prime Minister John Major.

Interestingly, Neil Kinnock's net approval ratings just prior to his two failed attempts to become Prime Minister: 10.6 percentage points in May 1987, and 8.8 in March 1992 - are both higher than Blair's score currently, and that which he achieved in Spring 1997.

Source: The Sunday Times 6 May 2001. Data from MORI/Times survey conducted on 19-24 April 2001. The Times topline: Political Attitudes in Great Britain for April 2001 Technical details: Electorate Under The Microscope

NOP/Powerhouse Poll: Tories Up

The Conservatives have gained five points since last week, putting them on 34% of the vote, and Labour is on 49%, down two points, according to an NOP poll for ITN's Powerhouse programme. The poll, published shortly before Mr Blair announced the election date, also put the Liberal Democrats on 11%.

Source: www.itn.co.uk, 8 May 2001 Technical details: Survey conducted by NOP. Sample: 1,600 interviewed by telephone; fieldwork dates not reported.