General Election 2001 - Election Digest
Three polls in the Sunday newspapers show Labour going into the second week of the campaign with a commanding lead. They also provide insights into the public's views on the key issues in the election.
1. MORI for the Sunday Telegraph
The poll shows Labour on 51%, with the Conservatives on 31% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%. Tony Blair is considered to be the most capable Prime Minister by 51% - with "none/don't know" (on 26%) ahead of William Hague and Charles Kennedy (15% and 8% respectively).
Health care and education are - by some margin - the two most important issues people highlight when they are asked about their decision on who to vote for. By more than 2:1, Labour is felt to have the best policies on managing the economy; the Conservatives are ahead on taxation policy, albeit by a smaller margin. Just over half (51%) think that a re-elected Labour government would increase income tax, with almost as many (45%) expecting an increase if the Tories were to gain power. Conservative plans to reduce spending in order to cut taxes are opposed by 60% to 28%.
The poll finds 74% in favour of a referendum on Britain's membership of the euro at some time during the next parliament. Asked about how they would vote if a referendum were held now, 67% say they would vote against, with 33% in favour. Technical details: 1,021 interviews conducted by telephone 10-12 May.
Press release:160Sunday Telegraph Week 1 Election Poll Source: MORI/Sunday Telegraph, 13 May 2001 Technical details: Not stated
The poll shows Labour on 49%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%. It shows that less than a third of the electorate (28%) think that the Conservatives could win an election with William Hague as leader; 60% believe that a victory at the polls could only be achieved with someone else in charge. Asked which party leader they would rather sit down and watch on TV, Tony Blair is ahead of William Hague by 38% to 17%. However, it is the "neither of these" category which triumphs, on 42%.
The survey indicates that the electorate have more confidence in public services improving under Labour, and remain unconvinced that they would end up paying less in tax under a Conservative administration. Almost half (46%) expect to see public services improve under a second Blair term, with 32% expecting them to stay about the same, and 18% believing they would get worse. In contrast, less than a quarter (21%) anticipate improvements under the Conservatives, with 35% expecting public services to stay about the same and 36% saying they would get worse. Four in ten (41%) expect taxes to rise under another Labour government; 39% believe tax levels would stay about the same, with 11% expecting to pay less. When asked about the Conservatives, most anticipate taxes to either increase (31%), or to stay about the same (34%); less than three in ten (26%) expect that they would end up paying less.
Source: NOP/Sunday Times, 13 May 2001 Technical details: 1,003 interviews by telephone, 10-11 May.
Labour is on 48%, with the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 15%. This represents the highest Labour lead recorded by ICM since January 2000. By 3:1, people think Tony Blair would make a better Prime Minister than William Hague (54% versus 18%). This compares with the 47%: 31% Blair held over John Major in 1997.
The public give a broadly positive verdict on the Government's record: 65% say that its policies have made things a lot or a little better, with 25% saying they would get worse. This positive balance of +40 compares with the -6 recorded by John Major's government during the 1997 campaign. Looking ahead, 60% expect that if Labour wins, their policies will make things better, with 27% saying they would get worse. This contrasts with expectations of what would happen if the Conservatives were to win: 40% say things would get better, with 47% believing they would get worse.
A third of the electorate (35%) expect taxes for "people like them" to rise if Labour wins; 46% say they would stay the same, and 8% say they would fall. A similar proportion expect their taxes to increase under the Conservatives (37%), with 35% expecting them to stay the same, and 19% believing that their tax bill would fall.
The survey looks at how people might vote if only two parties had a realistic chance of winning. In a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives, Labour is ahead by 58% to 39%. In a contest between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, it is the Lib Dems who lead, by 54% to 41%.
The poll shows that people remain cautious about joining the euro in the short term - while also indicating limited support for a policy which states that Britain should never join. Less than one in ten (7%) say Britain should join as soon as possible, with 36% advocating joining when the time is right. A quarter (24%) want to rule out joining for the next few years, while 28% believe that Britain should never become part of the single currency.
Source: ICM/Observer, 13 May 2001 Technical details: 1,011 interviews conducted by telephone on 10-11 May.
