General Election 2001 : MPs — Good or Bad
The omens for turnout at the election remain poor. The figures from our latest poll for the Times, put into context by the corresponding figures from 1997, are in the table below.
Q Can you tell me how likely you are to get along to vote at the next general election?
| 1992 election | 11-12 Mar 1992 | 16 Mar 1992 | 23 Mar 1992 | 30 Mar 1992 | 7-8 Apr 1992 | 9 Apr 1992 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Certain to vote | 69 | 67 | 72 | 71 | 82 | 160 |
| Certain / very likely | 80 | 79 | 82 | 82 | 90 | |
| Actual turnout | 160 | 78 | ||||
| 1997 election | Mar 1997 | 1 Apr 1997 | 8 Apr 1997 | 15 Apr 1997 | 22 Apr 1997 | 29 Apr 1997 | 1 May 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Certain to vote | 66 | 63 | 62 | 64 | 68 | 71 | 160 |
| Certain / very likely | 78 | 75 | 75 | 77 | 80 | 81 | |
| Actual turnout | 160 | 71 | |||||
| 2001 election | 19-24 Apr 2001 | 8 May 2001 | 15 May 2001 | 7 Jun 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % | % | % |
| Certain to vote | 50 | 46 | 53 | 160 |
| Certain / very likely | 66 | 65 | 70 | 160 |
| Actual turnout | 160 | ? | ||
How low the turnout will dip probably depends on the electors who currently say they are "very likely" to vote -- how many of them will firm up their intentions between now and 7 June? If we take "certain or very likely" as the indicator of the trend, then voting likelihood is currently five points below the 1997 position. However, the proportion of very likely to certain is considerably higher than last time -- consequently if we look only at those who are certain to vote at the moment, we face a nine-point deficit which would point to a turnout of 62%; in which case it would be almost certain that, for the first time in modern British history, the number of abstainers would be higher than the number voting for the winning party.
It would be easy to assume that the apparent towards non-voting, or "apathy" as the current shorthand has it, stems from such complete disillusionment with the political system, and with the politicians that operate in it, that it would be impossible to find any indicator that might suggest increased esteem for MPs. Yet when we asked the public earlier this week (also in the MORI/Times poll) how satisfied or dissatisfied they were with the way MPs are doing their job, we found that satisfaction has significantly increased since we last asked this question in October 1992. Then 32% were satisfied and 56% dissatisfied, a net score of -24; now 39% are satisfied and only 37% dissatisfied, a net +2 and a 13% swing in MPs' favour.
As in 1992, respondents were more positive when asked about their own MP than about MPs in general, but the gap has narrowed. In 1992, 44% were satisfied with their own MP and 28% dissatisfied, net +16; now 42% are satisfied, 19% dissatisfied, net +23.
More revealing is to note which constituents are satisfied with their MP. While 42% of all electors say they are satisfied with the way their own MP is doing his or her job, 51% of those who have definitely decided how they will vote are satisfied, but only 31% of those who may change their minds. Interesting also, for those who like to blame the low standing of politicians on the smears and negativity of the tabloid press, that satisfaction stands at 45% among broadsheet readers but 48% among readers of the popular press.
Finally, there is confirmation of the often asserted success of Lib Dem MPs in building up a constituency vote: 72% of those living in Lib Dem held seats were satisfied with their local MP, compared to 40% in Labour seats and 38% in Conservative. Satisfaction was 39% in the seats Labour gained at the last election, 49% in their rock solid heartland seats, flying in the face of the stereotype of growing disillusionment in the safest seats; but, of course, many of those heartland MPs have served the same constituents for many years, giving them the chance to build up a core of personal support, while the MPs in the Labour gains are, by definition, new faces.
But then we also found that only 41% of the public can name their MP at all -- even with an election campaign in full swing, which ought to help a bit! In March 1991, 52% could give a correct answer to the same question. Call it apathy, call it disengagement, call it a dumbed down, information-weak society. It would be hard to find a better illustration of the socio-political changes that are leading us to a record-low general election turnout.
