General Election 2001 : Voting By Post
The strange, slow tempo of this election campaign, unusually punctuated by two Bank Holiday weekends, seems to fit this election, which has failed to capture the public imagination or interest, rather well. The projected turnout is stubbornly refusing to shift upwards.
| 1992 election | 11-12 Mar 1992 | 16 Mar 1992 | 23 Mar 1992 | 30 Mar 1992 | 7-8 Apr 1992 | 9 Apr 1992 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Certain to vote | 69 | 67 | 72 | 71 | 82 | 160 |
| Certain / very likely | 80 | 79 | 82 | 82 | 90 | |
| Actual turnout | 160 | 78 | ||||
| 1997 election | Mar 1997 | 1 Apr 1997 | 8 Apr 1997 | 15 Apr 1997 | 22 Apr 1997 | 29 Apr 1997 | 1 May 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Certain to vote | 66 | 63 | 62 | 64 | 68 | 71 | 160 |
| Certain / very likely | 78 | 75 | 75 | 77 | 80 | 81 | |
| Actual turnout | 160 | 71 | |||||
| 2001 election | 19-24 Apr 2001 | 8 May 2001 | 15 May 2001 | 22 May 2001 | 7 Jun 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % | % | % | % |
| Certain to vote | 50 | 46 | 53 | 52 | 160 |
| Certain / very likely | 66 | 65 | 70 | 69 | 160 |
| Actual turnout | 160 | ? | |||
However, the election has now reached its final stretch. As the parties' campaigns build towards their climaxes, there are nine days to enthuse the voters.
Or are there? Changes to the law since the last election have made it much easier to claim a postal vote than hitherto; all electors are now entitled to vote by post if they prefer, and have simply to contact their local council before tomorrow's deadline to ensure they receive their ballot papers.
Naturally, we have been tracking the take-up of postal votes through our polls. In our most recent poll for The Times (with fieldwork last Tuesday), 5 of the population said that they had already applied for a postal vote, and another 3 that they intended to do so. (A further 1 were intending to apply for a proxy vote, to which legal restrictions still apply.) If the 8 total is correct, that would involve almost three-and-a-half million postal votes being issued; in 1997, the total was only 937,205, of which 738,614 were duly returned in time to be included in the count.
Of course, one of the main reasons for widening the availability of postal votes was the hope that it might counter falling turnout. But it does not seem to be having that effect. In a survey for the Institute for Citizenship at the end of last month [link], we specifically tested whether reminding respondents of the new regulations would increase their propensity to vote. It did not any substantial difference. It seems that, while many citizens will take advantage of the convenience of being able to vote by post, it will be almost entirely those who would have voted in any case. Making it easier to vote is not a solution to the current malaise, if malaise it is, affecting voting turnouts.
But with perhaps three million votes being cast by post, perhaps we should wonder when the real end of the campaign will be. If those ballot papers are to reach the Returning Officer by Thursday evening, it would be unwise to wait until Thursday morning to post them; many voters will, no doubt, return them much earlier -- indeed, by return of post once they arrive. For millions of voters, the 2001 election campaign may already be in its last couple of days.
