Going to Iraq and Ruin

MORI's latest poll on the War on Terrorism, published this week in Time Magazine, shows a very sharp fall in public approval for the government's handling of the crisis since MORI's last poll on the subject on 22-27 November last year. Just over half the public, 52%, say they approve of the way Mr Blair has handled the British response to the terrorist attacks, whereas in November he had the support of more than seven in ten, 71%.

Two in five of the public disapprove. Of course, he will find it reassuring that he still commands the support of the majority, even though support has fallen away, but it is no longer possible to think of the support as representing something approaching a national consensus. From a lead of more than three-to-one, the ratio is now only five-to-four.

British approval of the way President George W Bush has handled the American response has fallen equally, and is now down to 50% (a fall from 66% in November), with 37% disapproving. In fact, ever since September 11th, President Bush's rating in Britain has tracked Mr Blair's very closely; superficially, at least, few Britons draw a distinction between the two.

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the American response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September?

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Blair is handling the British response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September?

Source: MORI Base: c. 600- c. 1,000 British 18+ in each poll

However, the situation is more complex than that. As I noted in analysing one of last year's polls, but now to an even clearer degree, breaking down the approval figures by party support reveals a fascinating situation. Approval of Mr Blair's handling of the British response is highest among Labour supporters (61%), though most Conservatives (55%) also approve; the balance of Liberal Democrat opinion, by contrast, is against the Prime Minister (49% disapprove, with 40% approving).

Approval of Mr Bush's handling of the American response, however, is markedly higher among Conservatives (64%) than Labour (50%), and just 38% of Liberal Democrats approve. Put another way, among Conservatives approval of Mr Bush is nine points higher than approval of Mr Blair, but for Labour supporters Mr Bush's rating is eleven points lower.

Older Britons are less likely to approve of Mr Blair's handling of the situation. More of those aged 55 and over disapprove (46%) than approve (43%), whereas 58% of 16-24 year olds, 57% of 25-34 year olds and 56% of 35-54 year olds approve. On the other hand, the age differences in attitudes to President Bush's handling of the American response are much smaller, and indeed not statistically significant. Approval of Mr Blair is also considerably lower among DEs (44%) than among other classes.

Probably at least two factors are driving the fall in approval of Mr Bush and Mr Blair. The first is a loss of public interest in the War, which, compounded with rising concern about public services, is now causing some of the public to resent the amount of effort being put into foreign rather than domestic issues. The falling away of "defence/foreign affairs" as one of the important issues facing the country mentioned in our monthly polls similarly indicates a change in priorities. Of course, the situation in the USA is very different: the ABC News/Washington Post poll by TNS Intersearch a few days before ours (7-10 March) found 88% of Americans still approving of the way the President is handling the situation.

The second factor is probably the continued speculation that the War will shortly be extended to Iraq in an attempt to overthrow Saddam Hussain. The balance of British opinion is against the American government stepping up military action in Iraq. Only 35% say that the American government would be right to do so, while 52% think it would be wrong. Slightly more men (38%) than women (32%) would approve, and younger Britons are more likely to think it would be right than their older counterparts (43% of 16-34 year olds but only 29% of those aged 55+). Opposition is higher than average in London, where 62% think the American government would be wrong to step up military action.

The figures are similar for attitudes to British involvement in any American escalation of action in Iraq. Only one in three Britons, 34%, think the British government would be right to join the Americans in any such stepping up of action. (This matches the 35% support that ICM found for a similar proposition but using a different question in their poll for the Guardian, conducted over the same weekend as MORI's poll.) More than half, 56%, say they think British involvement would be wrong.

Again, this differs from the tenor of American opinion. When TNS asked "Would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power?", 72% of Americans were in favour.

The opening of this gap between British and American attitudes is accompanied by a significant minority of the public feeling that Mr Blair and Mr Bush are too close. Half the British public, 52%, think that Britain has got its relationship with the USA "about right" on these international issues, and a further 3% think Mr Blair's government is not supportive enough; but two in five think that the British government is too supportive of the American government.

Politically, this looks like leaving Mr Blair with something of a problem if the US does indeed attack Iraq. There have been plenty of stories about cabinet unrest at the prospect, and Labour's supporters throughout the country seem just as uneasy. Conservatives are evenly divided on British involvement in Iraq (45% right, 47% wrong), but Labour supporters are 54% to 36% against. Even more emphatically Liberal Democrats (74% to 21%) say Britain would be wrong to get involved. These Labour opponents of the war presumably include many of those who at the moment say they disapprove of Mr Bush's handling of the situation but still give Mr Blair the benefit of the doubt. If they turn against their party, there is a clear risk that the War against terrorism will turn from being a political asset for the Prime Minister to being a liability.

But on the other hand, a responsible PM cannot afford to take such factors into account if he believes that the opposite choice is in the interests of the country, and Mr Blair has made it quite clear that at the moment his instincts are to stick with the Americans.