Half of Britons expect Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022

As tensions continue between Russia and Nato, new polling by Ipsos shows just over half of Britons think it is likely that Russia will invade Ukraine before the end of 2022. This is a similar pattern to the end of last year, with a small increase of 4 percentage points in those who think it likely (although there has also been a small increase of three points in those who think it unlikely, to 25%). 

2019 Conservative voters (61%) and those who voted to leave the EU (62%) are slightly more likely to predict an invasion, compared with 52% of those who voted for Labour in 2019 and the same proportion of remain voters.  Older people are also slightly more likely to expect an invasion, with 58% of 55-75 year olds thinking it likely, compared with 50% of 18-54 year olds.

Technical note

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,029 British adults aged 18-75. Interviews were conducted on the Ipsos online omnibus on 18th January 2022. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.