New research from Ipsos shows that half (51%) of Britons think the Conservatives’ chances of winning the 2015 General Election will increase if Boris Johnson stands as an MP. However, a third (34%) believe Mr Johnson standing as an MP will make no difference to his colleagues’ chances of victory, whilst one in nine (11%) think his candidacy actually harms the Conservatives’ chances next year.
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos; said:
"Boris Johnson is easily the most liked leading Conservative, with ability to attract support from across the spectrum, and this is reflected in this poll with half thinking if he stands as MP this boosts the Conservatives’ chances of winning the next election. But we have to remember that this is a hypothetical situation and does not mean all these people will change their vote, and when it comes to next May voters will be making up their minds on many factors – key issues like the economy, immigration and public services, and the broader image of the parties and the leaders."
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 9th – 11th August 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party and in the headline figures, those who are not absolutely certain to vote. Data are based on all adults unless otherwise stated.
From August 2014, Ipsos has started including a small proportion of mobile numbers in its Political Monitor sample. Our testing has shown this makes no significant difference to our figures.