Hillary Clinton Confounded The Pollsters In New Hampshire On Tuesday
The Sun' s Political Editor commissioned Bob Worcester to write a personal "Why the polls got it wrong in New Hampshire" article for the Sun, Britain's best selling national daily newspaper, specifically in "Sunspeak". Here's the text as written, and a link to the Sun's sub-edited version as appeared in the paper.
There were twenty-one polls over the five days of frenzied campaigning between the Iowa Caucus and the vote on Tuesday. The final two days there were seven polls. They had Obama ahead of Clinton by an average of seven points.
Harold Wilson famously said, "A week is a long time in politics". Over that week, the media elected Obama. The voters chose Clinton. In New Hampshire voters are known to be an independent bunch.
American primaries are funny things. They are like by-elections in Britain.
Voters know it's not the real thing.
American elections are popularity contests right up to 4 November when the real contest takes place. That's when the fat lady sings.
In New Hampshire, as happens in Iowa, the four voters in ten who describe themselves as independent of either party can choose to vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary. They are a volatile bunch.
Some speculate that independent voters who expected a clear Obama win opted to vote in the Republican primary to support Senator McCain over Governor Romney.
In Iowa more women supported Obama than Clinton. Women in New Hampshire voted by 4-3 for Clinton.
The polls didn't catch the swing back from double digit leads on the weekend.
Hillary changed her tune in the final two days. She "found her voice". She cut up rough.
She nearly burst into tears at one point. She's a tough lady. But she showed she's human.
Clinton was hoping that the States would fall like dominos. First Iowa, then New Hampshire. Now Michigan on the 15th, Nevada Caucuses, South Carolina's Democratic primary, then Florida on the 29th, then superduper Tuesday on 5 February.
It's likely both candidates will likely be chosen then. To start the real race for the White House.
The pollsters didn't get it entirely wrong. On the Republican side, they called McCain over Romney. They had Huckabee, the surprise winner in Iowa, languishing in third place.
Pundits talk about Obama as the "new Reagan". I don't. To me it recalls the "flower-power" days of the forgotten Senator Eugene McCarthy in 1968. He was the Obama of his day. He flowered and then faded. It was the machine candidate Hubert Humphrey who was the Democratic candidate in the 1968 Presidential election not Senator Eugene McCarthy.
This article first appeared in The Sun
