Ipsos MRP shows Labour on track to win large majority, but nearly 120 seats still too close to call

• Ipsos MRP estimates Labour could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115, with a Labour majority of 256. 
• Ipsos MRP projection suggests Nigel Farage winning in Clacton, Jeremy Corbyn losing in Islington North and high-profile Conservatives such as Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees Mogg, and Grant Shapps facing losses.
• 117 seats are ‘too close to call’.  Conservatives are currently second in 50 of these, Labour in 43. So small changes in parties’ performance could change the picture further.
• Lib Dems are poised to win 38 seats, SNP 15, Reform UK 3 and Greens 3.

Today Ipsos publishes its first MRP model of the 2024 General Election. Ipsos’ MRP model is unique as it uses data collection from our online random probability Ipsos KnowledgePanel, with participants recruited via random unclustered address-based sampling, the gold standard in UK survey research. It is also the first such model to be produced with data collection taken entirely after Nigel Farage announced he was returning to lead Reform UK.

MRP Key Findings, Charts and Analysis