Ipsos Political Monitor January 2008

Ipsos's January Political Monitor, conducted from 17-23 January 2008 (before Peter Hain's resignation) shows the Conservatives on 37%, Labour on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 16%. These figures do not represent a significant change from our December Monitor for Labour or the Liberal Democrats, but the Conservatives have come down five points from 42% last month.

This finding is reflected in the public's satisfaction with the two main party leaders: satisfaction with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party has fallen from 39% in December to 31% now, and dissatisfaction with Cameron has risen from 33% to 38%. Satisfaction with Cameron has dropped notably among Conservative Party supporters, from 67% last month to 57% now.

However, Cameron's ratings still remain well above those for Gordon Brown and the Governement. Satisfaction with the government is at 29% and dissatisfaction at 62%, while a third (32%) are satisfied with the way Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister compared to almost half (48%) who are dissatisfied. However, dissatisfaction with both Brown and the Government have decreased in the past month, yielding improved 'net' ratings for both.

As our trend data shows (Satisfaction Ratings — last 12 months), net ('index') support for the Government and Brown has increased among the general public, but dropped off notably amongs Labour supporters. It appears that neutrals, or floating voters, who do not necessarily support Brown, chose to cast their support to Labour — likely because of their increasing dissatisfaction with Cameron.

This slight drop in support for the Conservatives may be related to the public's increasing pessimism about the future of Britain's economy (60% now think it will get worse over the next 12 months, up from 55% in December). Over the last decade, the Labour party has been seen to be better on economic issues than the Conservatives (Best Party On Key Issues — Managing the Economy).

'Crime / law and order / violence' and 'race relations / immigration' remain at the top of the public's list of concerns facing Britain.

Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,045 adults aged 18+ at 210 sampling points across Great Britain.
• Interviews were conducted face-to-face on 17-23 January 2008.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
• Download the data tabulations pdf, 227KB

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,070)

Voting — all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (2,045)

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

Base: 1,014 British adults 18+

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

Base: All party supporters

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)

Base: 1,014 British adults 18+

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,014 British adults 18+

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 2,045 British adults 18+