Ipsos Political Monitor October 2012

Labour lead little changed after conferences, Lib Dems slightly down

CON 33 (+3); LAB 43 (+2); LIB DEM 9 (-4)

Post-conferences the gap between Labour and the Conservatives has remained the same, though the Liberal Democrats are down four points, according to the latest poll from Ipsos.

Among those certain to vote, Labour’s share is 43% (up 2 points), the Conservative Party are on 33% (up 3 points), and the Liberal Democrats on 9% (down 4 points). This gives a Labour lead of 10 points, little changed from the 11 points in September.

Meanwhile, following an increase in optimism in August and September, Ipsos’s Economic Optimism Index has declined to -14. This is, however, still some distance from the mood pre-Olympics when the Index was -32 (during June and July 2012).

Satisfaction with the government and all three party leaders has declined since September. Two-thirds (67%) are now dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country.

The proportion of people satisfied with the way the Prime Minister, David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg and Labour leader, Ed Miliband, are doing their jobs has remained stable, but the number of people who are dissatisfied has increased. The net satisfaction ratings for each leader have therefore decreased since last month:

• Satisfaction with Mr Cameron is 33% compared to 34% in September, while dissatisfaction is up four points to 62 (giving a net satisfaction rating of -29, down from –24);
• Mr Clegg’s satisfaction rating has stayed at 23%, while dissatisfaction is up slightly to 68% (from 66% in September), giving a net satisfaction rating of -45 (down from -43)
• Satisfaction with Mr Miliband is 37% (compared to 38% in September); and dissatisfaction has risen slightly to 49% (from 47%) giving him a net satisfaction rating of -12 (down from -9).

Satisfaction among party supporters is as follows:

• 68% of Conservative supporters are satisfied with Mr Cameron (69% in September);
• 53% of Liberal Democrat supporters are satisfied with Mr Clegg. Though he still has the worst satisfaction rating among members of his own party, Mr Clegg has seen the largest increase in satisfaction this month among party supporters, up ten points (from 43% in September); and
• 58% of Labour supporters are satisfied with the way Mr Miliband is doing his job (from 55% in September).

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said

“The conference season hasn’t yet changed the underlying dynamics between Labour and the Conservatives, but what the public has noticed certainly hasn’t helped the Liberal Democrats at all. Meanwhile the economy remains voters’ top concern, and after the mood improved – just like Britain’s GDP – in September, pessimism has increased again this month.”

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Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,005 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 20-24 October 2012. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.