Public ratings of the SNP fall over Humza Yousaf’s first year as First Minister

New polling conducted by Ipsos Scotland in March finds that:

• One year on from becoming First Minister, Humza Yousaf remains less popular among the public than his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon was when she left office. 
• Public approval ratings have dropped for the SNP compared to a year ago. However, the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak are much more unpopular. While Labour have a better overall ‘net’ rating among the public than the SNP does, more of the public are neutral towards Labour than is the case for the SNP or Conservatives. 
• Ratings of Scottish Government performance are down across key policy areas one year into Mr Yousaf’s tenure as First Minister, with falls on managing the economy, the NHS, education and improving living standards.

Is Scotland heading in the right or wrong direction?

As a General Election looms, half of Scots (52%) say that generally speaking things in Scotland are heading in the wrong direction, while just over a fifth (21%) feel they are heading in the right direction (20% said neither and 8% were unsure). However, this was also the case a year ago when Humza Yousaf become First Minister.

Views on the Scottish parties and leaders 

Under Humza Yousaf, the SNP’s overall ratings among the public have declined from a ‘net’ favourability rating of -1 in March 2023 to -10 one year later. 34% of the public have a favourable opinion of the SNP, while 44% have an unfavourable opinion of it. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour’s ‘net’ rating of -3 is broadly similar to a year ago, when it stood at -4. The Scottish Conservatives have a ‘net’ rating of -48, a further fall compared with their ‘net’ rating of -42 in March last year.

Humza Yousaf receives a ‘net’ negative rating of -15 from the Scottish public, with 29% holding a favourable view of him compared to 45% who have an unfavourable view of him. While Yousaf is viewed a little more positively than when he was running to be leader (when his ‘net’ rating was -20), Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar remains more popular than Yousaf among the public with a ‘net’ rating of -7 (26% favourable and 33% unfavourable).

The First Minister is nowhere near as popular as his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, was during her time as First Minister. Sturgeon still has a slightly higher ‘net’ rating among the public than Yousaf does, of -12, with 35% holding a favourable view of her compared to 47% who are unfavourable. However, this is significantly down from March 2023, when she left office with an overall ‘net’ positive rating of +8 (46% favourable, 38% unfavourable).

Ratings of Scottish Government performance

Across a range of policy areas – managing Scotland’s economy, and improving the NHS, education and living standards – more people say the Scottish Government has done a bad job than a good job. This was also the case under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership, but views have worsened since Humza Yousaf took over.

The public have particularly negative views of the Scottish Government’s record on:

• Improving the NHS in Scotland, with 56% saying they have done a bad job on this, compared to 22% saying they have done a good job. Their overall ‘net’ rating of -35 is worse than a year ago (when it was -30).
• Improving living standards for people on low incomes, with 49% saying they have done a bad job and 24% saying they have done a good job (with a ‘net’ rating of -24 compared to -18 a year ago). 
• Improving the education system in Scotland, with 48% saying they have done a bad job and 24% saying they have done a good job (with a ‘net’ rating of -25 compared to -19 a year ago).
• The Scottish Government’s score card is also negative for:
  • Managing Scotland’s economy (47% bad job, 24% good job, ‘net’ -23 compared to -16 a year ago)
  • Improving people’s own standard of living (47% bad job, 19% good job, ‘net’ -28 compared to -24 a year ago).

Emily Gray, Managing Director, Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 

These findings show the Scottish public are less favourable towards the SNP now than they were when Humza Yousaf took office, with Mr Yousaf facing a challenge to convince the public his government is delivering on key policy areas such as the NHS, education and the economy. However the other parties also face challenges – the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak are much more unpopular, whilst views towards Labour are less negative but the results suggest they haven’t as yet generated much enthusiasm among the public.

Technical Note

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,040 adults aged 16+ in Scotland. 
• The survey took place online between 15th and 26th March 2024. 
• Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. 
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories. 
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.