The Liberal Democrats at the General Election:One Step Forward or Two Steps Back?

Simon Atkinson, Jessica Elgood and Roger Mortimore MORI Political Research Unit

Paper Prepared for EPOP Conference, University of Edinburgh, 8-10 September 2000

Introduction

Over the last three years, the Liberal Democrats - like the Conservatives - have been faced with the challenge of adapting to life under a new Government. But the two parties have had to respond in very different ways. For the Tories, this has involved a process of adjusting to life in opposition, and starting to rebuild from the disastrous result of 1997. For the Liberal Democrats, the path to take has been less clear. The election saw them outperform almost all expectations in terms of seats won. It also saw the arrival of a Government whose policies are very much more in tune with Liberal Democrat thinking than those of successive Tory administrations. So for many Liberal Democrats, the immediate aftermath of 1997 was characterised by a sense of both optimism and uncertainty, and we have seen these in evidence at periodic points throughout the last three years.

This paper seeks to review public attitudes towards Britain's third party. For much of the time, the media gaze focuses on the relative fortunes of the Labour and Conservative parties. A great deal of polling data is collected about the Liberal Democrats, and not all of this receives a wide circulation. We wanted to take stock of the information that is available, and present an overview to colleagues. What is changing, and what has stayed the same? Can we make any preliminary assessments of Charles Kennedy's progress as leader? And, most important of all, what can we say about the Party's prospects at the General Election?

1. Taking A Step Back: The Experience of 1997

In 1997 the Liberal Democrats achieved much their best result since the War in terms of seats. This took place despite a falling vote share, and views achieved through efficient targeting of the campaign. Previously, the pattern of seats won has tended to shadow the share of the vote much more closely (although, of course, the first-past-the-post electoral system ensures that the party wins only a fraction of the number of seats that would be won under PR.) Improvement on, or even maintenance of, the 1997 position is likely to depend on reproducing the special factors that enabled the Lib Dems to break the previous party - disproportionately good performance in their strong areas and especially in Con-LD marginal seats, and almost certainly a very substantial anti-Tory tactical vote in those seats by electors who would otherwise vote Labour.