Mid-Conference Political Survey, September 2007

Our "election fever" political survey, conducted after the end of the Labour Party conference but before the Conservative Party conference began, found Labour with 41% of the vote and well clear of the Conservatives.

Our "election fever" political survey, conducted after the end of the Labour Party conference but before the Conservative Party conference began, and published in the Observer on 30 September, found Labour with 41% of the vote and well clear of the Conservatives, but only two in five said they would prefer an election this autumn. In head-to-head assessments of the party leaders, the public judged Gordon Brown as better than David Cameron or Sir Menzies Campbell on a series of criteria, and 58% said Mr Brown would make the most capable Prime Minister of three.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,000 adults in Great Britain aged 18 and over.
  • Interviews were conducted by telephone between 27-28 September 2007.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available on request.
  • Download the data tabulations pdf, 280KB

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (602)

  %
Conservative 34
Labour 41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 16
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other 3
 
Lab lead (177%) +7
 
Would not vote 2
Undecided 5
Refused 1

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (1,000)

  %
Conservative 31
Labour 45
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 15
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other 3
 
Lab lead (177%) +14
 
Would not vote 7
Undecided 8
Refused 1

Q3 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,000 British adults 18+

  %
10 -- absolutely certain to vote 62
9 6
8 6
7 5
6 3
5 8
4 1
3 2
2 2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote 6
Don't know 1
Refused *

Q4 And how would you vote if there were a General Election held later this Autumn?

(Ask Q5 if undecided or refused at Q4)

Q5 Which party would you be most inclined to support if there were a General Election held later this Autumn?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (602)

  %
Conservative 35
Labour 40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 16
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Other 4
 
Lab lead (177%) +5
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 1

Q6 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister -- Gordon Brown or David Cameron?

  %
Gordon Brown 58
David Cameron 17
None / Neither 17
Don't know 8

Q7-12 In choosing between Gordon Brown, David Cameron or Sir Menzies Campbell, which leader do you think ...

  Gordon Brown David Cameron Menzies Campbell None of these Don't know
  % % % % %
Best understands the problems facing Britain? 49 16 12 14 10
Would be best in a crisis? 60 13 9 7 12
Leads the most united team? 54 12 10 10 13
Is the most capable? 60 14 7 9 11
Is best able to deal with problems of the environment? 34 22 17 12 16
Is best able to deal with the challenges of the 21st century? 50 21 8 11 11

Q13 As you may know, there has been speculation about Gordon Brown calling a General Election this Autumn. In your opinion, when should Gordon Brown call the next election?

  %
This Autumn 39
In spring 2008 31
Before the end of 2009, a year before the end of his term 11
By June 2010, at the end of the five-year term limit 7
Don't know 11

Q14 The Conservative party recently announced that if elected it would match the current Labour government's spending plans for the next three year cycle. Please tell me which of the following three options you think best.

  %
Matching Labour's spending plans was the right thing to do 48
The Conservatives should aim to spend less than Labour 17
The Conservatives should aim to spend more than Labour 21
Don't know 14

Q15-17 I am now going to read out several statements, and would like you to tell me for each whether you agree or disagree:

  Agree Disagree Don't know NET agree
  % % % 177%
That David Cameron's proposal that there should be tax breaks for married couples is the right approach 63 30 7 +33
That David Cameron should stick with modernising the Tory party 77 15 8 +62
That David Cameron should stick with traditional Tory values 49 43 8 +6

Q18 Who would you most trust if Britain were in an economic crisis -- Gordon Brown and his Chancellor Alastair Darling, or David Cameron and his Shadow Chancellor George Osborne?

  %
Brown / Darling 61
Cameron / Osborne 22
Other *
Neither 9
Don't know 8

Q19 When the next General Election is called, what do you think the outcome will be?

  %
Conservatives will win by a large majority 2
Conservatives will win by a small majority 10
There will be a hung parliament, with no party with overall control 10
Labour will win by a small majority 48
Labour will win by a large majority 23
Liberal Democrats or another party will win 1
Don't know 5
Conservative win 12
Labour win 71

Q20 Do you think you would be more or less likely to vote if the General Election were held at the weekend rather than the traditional day, Thursday?

  %
More likely 18
Less likely 8
No difference 71
It depends 1
Don't know 1

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