Ipsos polling shows Labour 4 points ahead approaching party conference

• Andy Burnham preferred to Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch as PM.
• Labour seen as more fit to govern than other parties.
• 58% consider Reform UK ‘extreme’. 6 in 10 disagree they are ready for government. 54% disagree the Conservatives are ready too.
• Yet 7 in 10 remain dissatisfied with how government is running and dissatisfaction with Andy Burnham as PM has increased this month.

Labour leads by 4. 

• 27% say they will vote Labour at the next General Election (-1 from August), 23% say Reform (-2). 21% say the Conservatives (+3), 13% say the Greens (+1) and 8% say the Lib Dems (-1).

  

• However, 7 in 10 are dissatisfied with how the government is running the country (unchanged). Just 18% are satisfied (also unchanged).  This is a more negative position than two months into Keir Starmer’s government in 2024 but less negative than that of Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss or Boris Johnson.

  

• Just 27% agree that the current government is competent and 47% disagree. However, this position has improved over time. Last month 19% saw the government as competent and 52% disagreed. Under Keir Starmer in June 19% agreed it was competent and 63% disagreed.

Burnham compared to past PMs

Andy Burnham’s second satisfaction rating with Ipsos shows 31% satisfied with his job performance as PM and 44% are dissatisfied. There has been a 2 point increase in satisfaction from last month and a 14 point increase in dissatisfaction – mainly due to a fall in don’t knows (41% to 26%). 

When asked who they prefer as Prime Minister 35% choose Andy Burnham, 15% Kemi Badenoch and 14% Nigel Farage. 6% say someone else with the rest saying no one (10%), it makes no difference (14%) or don’t know (7%).

Public remain sceptical other parties are ready for government 

• Kemi Badenoch sees dissatisfaction levels revert to June levels but overall satisfaction is second only to Andy Burnham. 28% are satisfied with the Conservative leader (-1) and 46% are dissatisfied (+5).
• Nigel Farage is the most unpopular opposition leader. 24% are satisfied with the job he is doing (+1) and 61% are dissatisfied (no change).

• Meanwhile 23% are satisfied with the job Ed Davey is doing as leader of the Lib Dems (40% are dissatisfied) and 18% are satisfied with the job Zack Polanski is doing as leader of the Greens (50% are dissatisfied).  These are Zack Polanski’s weakest satisfaction scores with Ipsos since he became leader of the Greens.

  

• The public is sceptical of how ready the opposition parties are for government. Only 1 in 5 British adults (22%) believe Reform UK is ready to form the next government —a drop from 25% in January and 29% last September. 60% currently disagree Reform UK are ready (down 4 points from last month but +7 points from September).
• Similarly, just 20% agree that the Conservative Party is ready for government, 54% disagree but this is down from 64% last September.
• Meanwhile, 50% disagree Kemi Badenoch is ready to be PM (22% think she is). 61% disagree Nigel Farage is ready to be PM and 20% think he is. Figures for both are little changed over the month, though there has been 4 point drop in disagreement for Nigel Farage

Party image

• Perceptions of the Labour Party have improved somewhat from a year ago. Compared to September 2025, the party is now more likely to be seen as concerned about people in real need (41%, +14), understands the problems facing Britain (38%, +9), fit to govern (37%, +10), looks after the interests of people like me (29%, +9) and having a good team of leaders (28%, +9).

• Importantly for Labour, the party is seen as more fit to govern (37%) than nearest rivals the Conservatives (25%) with Reform and the Lib Dems on 20% and the Greens on 17%. The party is also seen as slightly more likely to understand the problems facing Britain (38%) than Reform (34%) and the Conservatives (30%).
• 58% consider Reform UK extreme – though this is down 4 points from a year ago. 39% consider the Greens extreme with one in four or less saying the same about the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems.

Commenting on the findings, Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos in the UK said:

As Andy Burnham approaches his first Labour Party conference as Prime Minister there are plenty of reasons for him to be cautiously optimistic. Perceptions of the Labour Party have improved on his watch, with Labour seen as more fit to govern than its main rivals, and Burnham himself is preferred to Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage as Prime Minister. Yet, despite public reservations about the Conservatives and Reform UK’s readiness for government there are still reasons for caution. Labour’s poll lead is narrow and 7 in 10 are still dissatisfied with how the country is being run. Furthermore, Burnham’s satisfaction ratings as Prime Minister are nothing to write home about by historic standards. With a key by-election around the corner – and an even more important budget – Andy Burnham and Labour should not take their current poll advantage for granted.

Technical note

• For media queries, please contact the Ipsos in the UK Press Office at [email protected]

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,031 British adults aged 18+ via the Ipsos UK Knowledge Panel. Polling was conducted online between 10-15 September 2026. Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 2,400 adults aged 18+ were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by nation, age, qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election (as collected immediately after the election). The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:

• Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected. 
• Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Government Office region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade (office coded), number of cars in household, constituency type, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2021/22 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.

A two-part voting intention question is used with prompting on main parties (Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales). If a respondent indicates they will vote for ‘another party’ they see a second screen where they are prompted with the Greens, Restore Britain or another party that they write in. A follow-up ‘squeeze’ question is asked of those who are undecided or refuse the first question. Here all parties mentioned above are prompted on the same screen. A turnout filter is used based on two questions: current stated likelihood to vote (at least 9 out of 10 certain to vote) and previous voting behaviour (if they say they “always” or “usually” vote in general elections or that “it depends”).

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. 

Note that this is a new methodology implemented since June 2025. It involves a new form of data collection (online random probability panel instead of quota telephone survey), an updated voting intention (which involves prompting for Reform UK), and an updated weighting scheme.  This is based on our learnings during and since the 2024 General Election. This means that comparisons with previous waves need to be made with caution.