Opinion split as to whether government spending on defence and the Armed Forces should be increased, decreased or stay the same

• Fire brigade, NHS and Armed Forces are the most favoured institutions in UK
• Public confident that Britain’s Armed Forces can defend the country against attack, help Britain’s allies, use up-to-date technology and provide a good career path for young people
• But some doubts over their provision of mental health care and support for personnel after they leave
• Majority of Brits support sending money and weapons to help Ukraine fight against Russia

With defence spending a key debate in Westminster, new polling by Ipsos shows British opinion is split as to whether or not more money should be spent in this area.

The poll, conducted 24-25 September 2022, shows 1 in 3 (34%) think defence spending should stay at its current level, while (30%) think it should increase, +2pp since June 2022, (even if this means extra government borrowing, higher taxes or less money to spend on other public services) and almost 2 in 10 (18%) believe it should be decreased, -2pp since June 2022, to reduce government borrowing, lower taxes or allow money to be spent elsewhere.

Considering current government spending, people tend to overestimate how much the British government spends on defence, with a mean guess of £20.34 out of every £100 going to the Armed Forces, when the actual proportion was 5.2% in 2020/21, according to the Ministry of Defence (MoD).  
Armed Forces (66%) is the third most favoured British institution, behind The Fire Brigade (78%) and NHS (72%) whilst Parliament (22%), Media (23%) and Banks are the least favoured amongst Brits.

When asked about confidence in the abilities of the Armed Forces, Brits are most confident in Defence using up-to-date technology (74%), providing a good career path for young people (73%) and assisting Britain’s allies in wars abroad (73%). However, the UK is least confident in the abilities of the Armed Forces when it comes to providing mental health care (38%) and support for personnel after they have left their duties (37%).

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos in the UK, said:

Britons continue to have favourable views towards the Armed Forces and their personnel, and generally are confident in their ability to protect Britain and assist our allies abroad, use up-to-date technology, and provide a good career path for young people.
But as debate continues in Westminster and in the Conservative leadership debate about the right level of defence spending, Britons are divided over whether more really should be spent on the Armed Forces, with defence coming below several other public services.. And the public do have some questions about some of the pastoral care provided to armed service personnel, particularly when it comes to mental health care and support when they leave the Armed Forces to get a job or retrain.

Despite Brits showing confidence in the Armed Forces supporting allies in wars abroad (73%), since June there has been a decrease in confidence by -2pp. Overall support for Britain’s current role in the Ukraine conflict is strong with 62% supporting their role.

Support is highest amongst older age groups of which 80% aged 55-75 strongly/tend to support the activity; and only 45% of 16-34 year olds and 63% of 35 - 54 year olds respectively. Younger Britons are most likely to say they neither support nor oppose (32%) while only 15% oppose Britain’s current role in the Ukraine conflict.

When surveyed in June 2022, only 1 in 10 (10%) say it should be a priority to receive more funding while the NHS is seen as most deserving of an increase (56%) followed by social care for older people (25%) and housing (21%).

Younger Britons are most likely to want to see defence spending decreased, 30% of 16-34s say this should happen, around twice as many as 35-54s (18%) or 55-75s (12%). Across party lines, the highest proportion continue to want spending to stay at about the same level however 2019 Conservative voters are more likely to support increasing spending levels than Labour voters (by 36% to 25%).

Three in 10 (31%) do though estimate that under £10 of every £100 spent by the British Government goes to the military.  This is similar to the picture in 2015 when Britons (like people in several other countries), also overestimated how much spending went on defence, with an average guess of 12%  when it was actually 5%.  People who think defence spending should be increased are just as likely to overestimate the proportion of current spending as those who think it should be decreased.

In comparison to other countries, Britons are most likely to believe the USA (58%), China (52%), Russia (52%) and Israel (40%) spend more on their Armed Forces than we do in Britain (although these figures have fallen somewhat since 2015). Meanwhile, Britons are more likely to think France (35%), Australia (29%) and Canada (29%) spend about the same on their Armed Forces as Britain, while 35% believe we spend more on our military than Norway.

What should funding for the Armed Forces be spent on?

Britons think that there are a number of important areas that deserve funding from defence spending.  Of options given to respondents, all are seen as important by at least 7 in 10.  This includes spending on the Armed Forces’ capabilities to assist in civil domestic operations such as floods, response to a pandemic, etc. (important to 79%), funding for technology and personnel to carry out cyber warfare (78%), equipment such as tanks, vehicles, aircraft and airships (76%), the Forces’ capabilities to assist in humanitarian missions abroad (75%) and more Armed Forces personnel (71%).

Confidence in the Armed Forces

Britons are mostly confident in the abilities of the armed forces. Seven in 10 (70%) are confident that they can defend Britain against an attack while 75% believe they can usefully assist Britain’s allies in wars abroad. A similar proportion (73%) are confident they use up-to-date technology while 71% say they provide a good career oath for young people. Six in 10 are confident that the Armed Forces provide value for money for the public spending they receive (61%) and that they provide good quality care for armed service personnel with physical injuries.

However, opinion is split as to the provision of good quality mental health care for Forces personnel, with 47% confident but 42% not.  Similarly, half (50%) trust in the support Armed Forces personnel receive after they have left (for example, help in getting a job and retraining), but 40% lack confidence in this.

Like other public services, Britons have a largely favourable view of the Armed Forces. Two-thirds have a favourable opinion of the Armed Forces (67%, similar to the 65% in 2015), compared to 82% who say the same for the Fire Brigade, 79% for the NHS, 64% for schools and 62% for the police. This is much more favourable than for trade unions (35%), banks (32%), the media (22% and Parliament (20%).  There is a similar pattern when it comes to staff in each of those sectors, with 7 in 10 (71%) viewing soldiers favourably, remaining stable since 2015 (72%).

Perceptions of diversity in the Armed Forces today

Almost half of respondents correctly say the total number of personnel in the Armed Forces has decreased over the last 10 years (down 17.7% between April 2012 and April 2022, according to MoD personnel statistics): 48% believe it has decreased while 20% say increased and 11% say it has stayed the same. However, only 18% correctly estimate the Armed Forces have decreased by between 11-20%, the mean estimate is a decrease of 8.6%.

Most people correctly believe women make up a minority of Armed Forces personnel, with 54% believing women make up 3 in 10 or less of the Armed Forces, and a mean estimate of 20.2% (with little difference between men and women, and very similar to the average guess in 2015).  However only 16% correctly said between 10-15% of the Armed Forces are female (the correct proportion in 2022 was 11.3% of the UK Regular Forces, according to the MoD).

A fifth (22%) correctly say 5-10% of the Forces come from an ethnic minority background (the actual figure for 2022 was 9.6% of the UK Regular Forces), although the average answer overestimates this proportion at 17.5% - again similar to the average guess in 2015 (the mean guess among ethnic minority Britons is slightly higher at 22.9%).  For both gender and ethnicity around a third say they don’t know.

Technical note

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,200 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place on the online Omnibus between 24-25 September 2022 and 24th and 25th June 2022. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.
• Sources for actual figures:
  • Change in size of Regular Forces: Annual Personnel Report 2012 and Quarterly Personnel Statistics April 2022
  • % of total government spending on defence: MoD Departmental Resources 2021
  • % of women and ethnic minorities in the Armed Forces: UK Armed Forces Biannual Diversity Statistics April 2022