Political Commentary - David Cameron's First Year
Ipsos's first Political Monitor of 2007 shows the Conservatives leading Labour by 4 points (39% vs 35%), based on those who say they are "absolutely certain" (50% of the total sample of 1,955 British adults, 18+) to vote in an immediate general election. This puts the Tory share now higher than it was during most of the Autumn, and represents a swing of 3.5% from Labour since the 2005 general election.
The picture is somewhat different for the Tory leader however. While his party's ratings show signs of progress, David Cameron's personal net satisfaction ratings have been dropping since he came into office. Our monthly question asks the public if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party. In January 2006, the majority said they didn't know, but of those who had a view, Cameron enjoyed a net rating of +14 (satisfied minus dissatisfied). As the number of people saying 'don't know' has dropped off however, the 'satisfied' figure remained about the same, while the 'dissatisfied' figure increased for most of the year. Now, some of those who were satisfied with his leadership have been switching to dissatisfied.
It appears that the majority of the public now feel they know Cameron well enough to decide if they're satisfied with him - and more are now dissatisfied than either satisfied or 'don't know'. Net satisfaction now sits at -9, with more people saying they are dissatisfied (37%) than satisfied (28%) or say they do not know (35%). The Prime Minister, by contrast, has 25% satisfied, two thirds (68%) dissatisfied, and just 7% who say 'don't know'.
The picture is not all bleak for Mr Cameron, as his targeting of women appears to be having some effect. While the decline in women's net satisfaction is slowing, however, the downward slippage of men's net satisfaction with Cameron is speeding up. This indicates two things: first, that his efforts to appeal to women (the core of Labour support for the last nine years) seems to be working, and second that he may need to be thinking more about his profile among men.
Other recent Ipsos data for The Sun Attitudes Towards Leaders And Parties shows that Cameron is in fact well liked by both men and women, and that he is a boon to his party in the sense that he is relatively better liked by the general public than is his party - but among those who say they voted Conservative in 2005, considerably more like the party than like Cameron. In fact, one in three say they do not like him.
