Political Commentary - The Vanishing Gender Gap

At the 2005 election, probably for the first time ever in a British general election, more women than men voted Labour [Who Voted Which Way — In Detail]. Since David Cameron's election as Conservative leader, many of his initiatives have seemed clearly aimed at re-establishing the Conservatives' traditional strength among women. How is he doing?

9 February 2007

At the 2005 election, probably for the first time ever in a British general election, more women than men voted Labour [Who Voted Which Way -- In Detail]. Since David Cameron's election as Conservative leader, many of his initiatives have seemed clearly aimed at re-establishing the Conservatives' traditional strength among women. How is he doing?

Perhaps not surprisingly, men and women have very different approaches to politics and political opinion. Women, for example, tend to cite domestic issues like education as a key driver of their voting behaviour whereas men tend to men international issues more. But the fact is that fewer women are less likely to offer an opinion when asked a political question by researchers. Women are more likely than men on all types of survey questions (not just political ones) to say they 'don't know'. We do not have a concrete explanation for this, and there certainly isn't a simple answer. One possible explanation might be that women take less interest in politics and are therefore less able to form an opinion; but this does not seem to be the case. A second, perhaps more valid, suggestion is that women are slower to form an opinion, because they don't feel as pressured as men to have an opinion and are more willing to admit they don't know or haven't decided. It may be that women need stronger evidence than men before they form an opinion, or that they have the opinions but are less willing to express them than men, or any combination of the above suggestions.

One might interpret this indecisiveness (or, more accurately, unwillingness to express a polarised opinion) as 'malleability' because it could suggest that women's votes are more easily catered to by direct campaign targeting; however, our data indicates that women's voting patterns are actually less volatile than men's.

We can see this clearly if we look at voting intentions from the Ipsos Political Monitor aggregate for 2006 (combining the data from successive surveys so as to give us a more robust sample size for comparing different sections of the population): women are just as certain they would vote in an immediate election as are men, but less likely to know (or , perhaps, to be prepared to say) who that vote would be for. In the first half of 2006, women were significantly more likely (12% compared to 9%) to say they were undecided how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow; by the last quarter of the year, the gap was still there, now 13% to 9%. But looking at those who did know how they would vote and were sure they would do so, Labour's advantage with women had evaporated by the first half of 2006, with no statistically significant differences between the sexes in the proportions favouring the two main parties; a few months further on into the Cameron leadership this was still true -- the Tories led by 36% to 35% among men and trailed 36% to 35% among women in the fourth quarter.

Which raises the obvious question, are the disappearance of Labour's advantage among women and the higher proportion of women who are unsure how they would vote connected? If those 'don't knows' are natural Labour supporters who will resume their loyalty come the next general election, the ?gender gap? may work to Labour's advantage among women once again.

It would not be unnatural if potential Labour supporters were most unsure of their loyalties, given that Labour has yet to choose who will lead them into the next election, while the other major parties have their standard-bearers in place (palace coups permitting). On the other hand, even if they are naturally Labour supporters, if they are genuinely unsure then perhaps they could still be persuaded by Mr Cameron, or by Sir Menzies Campbell for that matter, and Labour will underperform among women as it almost always did before Tony Blair became leader. But neither side is in a position to count its chickens, or voters, yet.

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