Pulse Check - January 2026
January 2026
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Checking the pulse of the nation
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Labour feeling the Burnham
When the public are asked whether Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than a host of leading politicians, Burnham is the only one to come out on top, leading the current PM by 7 points. Starmer is neck and neck with Badenoch and Farage, leading both by just 1 point.
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Reforming the ranks, Tory defections continue
Almost half (47%) of Britons think Kemi Badenoch made the right decision to sack Robert Jenrick and remove the Conservative party whip. This includes 45% of Reform UK voters and rises to almost seven in ten (69%) of Conservative voters.
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Still special? Britain isn’t so sure
US influence continues to be perceived as more negative than positive, with 39% of Britons believing that the US exerts its influence mostly for bad around the world. The public are split on whether Britain and the US currently have a special relationship - 35% saying there is one, 33% saying there isn't.
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Let's talk defections
Reform UK has grown significantly over the past three years, accompanied by a steady stream of Tory defections. Around 20 former Conservative MPs have switched allegiance since 2024, with five sitting MPs joining Reform UK. The first month of 2026 alone has seen three defections: Andrew Rosindell (MP for Romford), Robert Jenrick (former Shadow Secretary of State for Justice), and Suella Braverman (former Home Secretary).
Same party, different shade of blue?
The impact of these defections on Reform UK has been hotly debated. Some have said that if Farage’s potential cabinet includes several members of the last government it may blunt Reform’s message of change. Others have pointed out that it helps maintain Reform’s momentum, and adding former ministers could help their credibility against an unpopular Labour party.
Our polling shows that two in five (42%) Britons think that the Conservative party and Reform UK are similar to each other. This drops to 22% amongst 2024 Reform UK voters, 34% amongst 2024 Conservative voters, and rises to 59% amongst 2024 Labour voters. When asked if Jenrick's defection had any impact on the way they view the Conservatives or Reform, the public are most likely to say that Jenrick's defection hasn't changed their views of the Conservative Party (55%) or Reform UK (46%).
Whilst the defection didn't really change public perceptions of the parties, at least in the short term, it did offer Badenoch the opportunity to demonstrate decisive leadership - which landed well with the public. 47% Britons supported her decision to sack Jenrick and remove the Conservative party whip, including 45% of Reform UK voters and almost seven in ten (69%) Conservative voters.
And more good news for the Conservatives - Kemi Badenoch’s position versus Nigel Farage was improving even before the defection. Badenoch is in a near statistical tie with Nigel Farage as best PM (24% vs 22%). In July she trailed by 5 (24% to 19%) and December 2024 she trailed by 7 (23% vs 16%).
However, even though views towards the Conservative leader are not as negative as last year, Kemi Badenoch and her party are still not as popular as Nigel Farage and Reform. Whilst Reform continue to announce high-profile defections, the data indicates that these moves are having a limited short-term impact on the public perceptions of either party, and where it is primarily reinforcing pre-existing views. Reform UK need to translate these defections into electoral traction and keep their pitch as the party offering real change whilst avoiding slipping into the role of the 'rebranded Tories'. Badenoch's recent gains will help bolster her position, but she and her party still have some way to go to regain the trust of the British public.
