Pulse Check - June 2025
Reform's Ipsos record 9-point lead
June 2025
Checking the pulse of the nation
Reform's Ipsos record 9-point lead
Ipsos’ newly relaunched Political Monitor shows Reform UK on a 34% vote share. This is the highest Ipsos has ever recorded for them, and, puts them nine points ahead of the Labour Party. Labour’s 25% voting intention is the lowest share Ipsos has recorded for Labour since October 2019, the Conservatives’ 15% is the lowest share Ipsos has ever recorded.
Israel-Iran conflict
The public is most supportive of the UK Government taking a mediation role and using diplomacy with both sides to try to de-escalate the situation. Meanwhile, around 3 in 4 Britons are concerned about the impact of the conflict on stability in the Middle East, on fuel prices and the economy, and on national security.
Who would make the best PM?
In a head-to-head with Nigel Farage, Keir Starmer continues to lead on who the British public think would make a better Prime Minister (32% Starmer vs 26% Farage). However, his lead is narrowing, and just over half (53%) say that it is not clear what Starmer stands for. In contrast, almost two-thirds of Britons (64%) say it is clear what Nigel Farage stands for.
Reform UK with record 9-point lead over Labour
We've relaunched our Political Monitor - Ipsos' long-term headline voting and satisfaction tracker - using a new methodology with fieldwork just before the Spending Review. And the latest results are breaking Ipsos records, shedding light on how much the political landscape has shifted over the past 12 months.
The rise of Reform
The first half of 2025 has seen Reform UK and party leader, Nigel Farage, steadily climb in the polls. Now, the party has broken Ipsos records. They have received the highest vote share Ipsos has ever recorded for them - 34%. This puts them nine points ahead of the Labour Party.
Labour’s current 25% voting intention is the lowest share Ipsos has recorded for Labour since October 2019. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have dropped to 15% - their lowest level ever recorded by Ipsos.
Reform’s gains are underpinned by strong support among working-class voters and high enthusiasm from those who backed the party in 2024. In contrast, the Conservatives continue to lose ground to Reform, while Labour faces pressure from both its left and right.
Satisfaction scores paint a gloomy picture
However, over-focusing on voting figures (especially at this stage of a parliament) risks oversimplifying the picture. A deeper look at the data is needed for the full story.
The disappointment with Labour is clear, even among those who voted for the party in 2024. We know from Ipsos research how difficult it has been to shift entrenched public pessimism over the cost of living, immigration, and the state of public services, and so far, Britons do not think Labour is delivering the tangible change they were hoping for in 2024.
Our satisfaction ratings tell a similar story:
- High disatisfaction with the government (76%) and Keir Starmer (73%).
- No good news for Kemi Badenoch - 60% dissatisfied, 28% don't know, 11% satisfied,
- Farage seen most positively, yet still net negative overall: 49% dissatisfied, 16% don't know, 34% satisfied (net = -15).
Putting this into perspective with our long term trends, (stretching back to 1977!) it's not quite the worst we've ever seen. Starmer currently sits on -54 net satisfaction, just shy of the lowest score, -59, achieved by Rishi Sunak and John Major.
Net satisfaction with Starmer's Government is -60, not quite reaching the depths of Truss' government (-69), Sunak's government (-74), May's government (-77), or Major's government (-78). Labour and Starmer's ratings are similar to Gordon Brown's in 2008-2009, post financial crash, and the last days of Thatcher's reign in the early 1990s.
Whilst Starmer and his government aren't the worst in the eyes of the public, it's not great company for a new government and prime minister, still in their first year. Labour will be hoping that the Spending Review will start to switch the narrative to a more positive one of renewal, but the challenge they face is significant.
In the midst of backbench rebellions over welfare, our latest data shows that while Starmer retains a (shrinking) lead as best PM, half of Britons say they don’t know what he stands for, and the majority still think the government is doing a bad job on issues such as the cost of living, immigration, and improving the benefits system.
Explore more of our data on our interactive Opinion Poll website
Our new methodology: explained
This research also features a new methodological approach for Ipsos, using our online KnowledgePanel based on gold-standard random probability sampling, and other changes we have made since the general election. For more information, click here.
As with any individual survey it is important to remember that margins of error apply, and results should be interpreted in the round along with other sources of data. As always, Ipsos will continue to review this new approach, and may make further refinements in the future if necessary.
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